World leaders are gathering at the United Nations General Assembly this year, with France and Saudi Arabia hoping to use the increasingly horrific war in Gaza to inject new urgency into the long-stalled quest for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Their efforts include a new road map for eventual Palestinian statehood in territories Israel seized during the 1967 Middle East war, and moves by several Western countries to join the global majority in recognising such a state before it has even been established.
Britain, Canada and Australia formally recognised a Palestinian state on Sunday, joining nearly 150 countries that had already done so. France is expected to follow suit at this week’s General Assembly.
But can this international push succeed? Or might it, as some critics fear, backfire and make peace even harder to achieve?
What is being proposed?
The creation of a Palestinian state in east Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza has long been viewed internationally as the only way to resolve the conflict, which began more than a century before Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack triggered the ongoing war in Gaza.
Proponents argue this would allow Israel to remain a democracy with a Jewish majority. The alternative, they say, is the current status quo: Jewish Israelis enjoy full rights, while Palestinians live under varying degrees of Israeli control which is a reality that major rights groups say amounts to apartheid.
“Israel must understand that the one state solution, with the subjugation of the Palestinian people without rights — that is absolutely intolerable,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said last week.
“Without a two-state solution, there will be no peace in the Middle East.”
What are the obstacles?
The push faces immediate and powerful opposition from both the United States and Israel.
The US has even blocked Palestinian officials from attending the General Assembly. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes Palestinian statehood, has threatened unilateral action in response, possibly including the annexation of parts of the West Bank.
That would place the Palestinians’ dream of independence even further out of reach.
Why has the two-state solution failed before?
Peace talks, launched in the early 1990s, repeatedly faltered amid violence and the steady expansion of Israeli settlements designed to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state.
Since Netanyahu’s return to office in 2009, no substantive negotiations have been held.
Israel annexed east Jerusalem long ago, considers it part of its capital, and has encouraged the growth of Jewish settlements in and around Palestinian neighbourhoods.
The occupied West Bank is now home to over 500,000 settlers with Israeli citizenship and some 3 million Palestinians, who live under Israeli military rule. The Palestinian Authority exercises only limited autonomy in scattered enclaves.
In Gaza, Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, displaced some 90 percent of the population of 2 million, left much of the territory uninhabitable and pushed parts of it into famine. A new offensive threatens to flatten Gaza’s largest city.
What does the French-Saudi plan involve?
Perhaps hoping this is a darkest-before-dawn moment, France and Saudi Arabia have advanced a phased plan to end the conflict by establishing a demilitarised state governed by the Palestinian Authority with international assistance.
The plan calls for:
An immediate end to the war in Gaza
The return of all hostages
A complete Israeli withdrawal
Hamas would hand power to a politically independent committee under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority that something it has already agreed to, and lay down its arms, which it has not.
The international community would then help the Palestinian Authority rebuild Gaza and govern the territories, possibly with the aid of foreign peacekeepers. Regional peace and integration, likely including Saudi normalisation of ties with Israel, would follow.
The 193-member world body approved a non-binding resolution endorsing the so-called “New York Declaration” earlier this month.
Why are Israel and the US opposed?
The United States and Israel argue that the global push for a Palestinian state rewards Hamas and makes it harder to reach a deal to halt the war and return the remaining hostages.
Ceasefire talks broke down again on 9 September when Israel carried out a strike targeting Hamas’ negotiators in Qatar, one of the main mediators. The US had walked away from talks in July, blaming Hamas, and Israel had unilaterally ended an earlier ceasefire in March.
Israel also claims that creating a Palestinian state would allow Hamas to stage another 7 October-style attack on an even wider scale. Hamas leaders have at times indicated they would accept a state on the 1967 lines, but the group remains formally committed to Israel’s destruction.
Netanyahu portrays international recognition of Palestinian statehood as an attack on Israel. During a meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week, Netanyahu said, “it is clear that if unilateral actions are taken against us, it simply invites unilateral actions on our part.”
Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners have long wanted to annex large parts of the West Bank, which would make the establishment of a viable Palestinian state virtually impossible.
Where do other countries stand?
The US has not yet taken a public position, but in an interview with Fox News, Rubio linked “this conversation about annexation” directly to the issue of statehood recognition.
The United Arab Emirates has called annexation a “red line”, although it has not said what effect this might have on the 2020 Abraham Accords, in which the country normalised ties with Israel.
Does the plan avoid the hard issues?
The French-Saudi proposal sidesteps the most divisive questions:
Final borders
The fate of Israeli settlements
The return of Palestinian refugees from past wars
Security arrangements
The status of Jerusalem
Recognition of Israel as a Jewish state
It also leans heavily on the Palestinian Authority, which is despised by many Palestinians who view it as corrupt and autocratic. Israel accuses the Authority of incitement despite recent reforms and insists it is not fully committed to peace.
The plan calls for Palestinian elections within a year. But President Mahmoud Abbas has delayed previous votes when it appeared his party would lose, blaming Israeli restrictions. Hamas, which won the last national elections in 2006, would be excluded unless it laid down its weapons and recognised Israel.
Could it all collapse like past efforts?
All of this means the plan risks joining the long list of failed Middle East accords, parameters and road maps, leaving Israel in full control of the land from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, ruling millions of Palestinians who are denied basic rights.