There is an 18.9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) gap to keep warming under 2°C and a 29.9 GtCO2e under 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, a Climate Watch analysis based on unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) has found. The open online platform of climate data, visualisations, and resources found only a 1.3 GtCO2e fall in emissions based on the new commitments in the 50 updated NDCs.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has invited heads of state and government to present their new NDCs. (un.org)
The analysis comes as countries are expected to announce their NDCs for the 2035 period at the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’s Climate Summit in New York on Wednesday. Guterres invited heads of state and government to present their new NDCs and detail the actions they will take over the next decade to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international climate treaty to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels, within reach.
The UN has said Wednesday’s summit will serve as a platform for world leaders to announce their new plans, demonstrate commitment to climate action, and seize the benefits of the new clean energy era. This event will bring together leaders from local governments, business, and civil society to discuss solutions to accelerate action across mitigation, adaptation, finance, information integrity, and other critical areas.
Officials said there is no decision yet as to when India will submit its updated NDC.
President Lula of Brazil, the co-convener of the summit, on Tuesday drew a parallel between the multilateralism crisis and the weakening of democracy. “Authoritarianism is strengthened when we fail to act in the face of arbitrary acts. Throughout the world, anti-democratic forces are trying to subjugate institutions and stifle freedoms,” he said.
He warned that bombs and nuclear weapons would not protect from the climate crisis. “The year 2024 was the warmest. COP30, [2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference] in Belém [Brazil], will be the COP of truth. It will be the time for world leaders to prove the seriousness of their commitment to the planet.” Lula said the world was walking blindfolded towards the abyss without a complete picture of NDCs.
All parties to the Paris Agreement have to submit NDCs within 10 years. Every NDC must “represent a progression” beyond the party’s previous NDC and “reflect its highest possible ambition”. The first set of NDCs was submitted in 2015.
So far, 50 countries accounting for 24% of global emissions have submitted new NDCs, and around 147 representing 76% are yet to do so.
Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (US) are among the major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting countries that have updated their 2035 NDCs.
In December last year, the Biden administration submitted its NDC 3.0. President Donald Trump, who took office a month later, has since withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement.
The European Union (EU) has submitted a “statement of intent” but not an NDC. The EU plans to submit the next NDC with an indicative 2035 target of reduction in net GHG emissions expected to be between 66.25% and 72.5% compared to 1990 levels. Environmental groups have criticised the range, saying it is not as ambitious as they expected.
Argentina, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey are among the large emitters yet to submit their updated NDCs.
Guterres called on countries to update their NDCs by September 24 (Wednesday) after most countries failed to submit updated NDCs by February 2025, the first deadline for submission.
Some big-ticket announcements are expected at the Wednesday climate summit. China, the EU, Turkey, Australia, South Africa, Pakistan, Barbados, and the Russian Federation are among the 118 countries scheduled to address the summit.
China is expected to announce its NDC at the event. In April, President Xi Jinping said that China would announce a comprehensive emissions reduction plan, covering all economic sectors and greenhouse gases for the first time.
China’s current NDC includes achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
The US withdrawal from the climate talks and a lack of consensus among EU states have raised expectations from China’s NDC.
Building consensus among all 27 member countries to endorse an ambitious NDC is the biggest challenge for the EU. Experts have flagged a leadership vacuum after the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The EU is still to forge a consensus on an ambitious NDC as Germany, France, and Hungary have not yet come on board.
An EU NDC may come through ahead of the COP30 in November. Experts are concerned that the EU is not taking the leadership that it is normally expected to. This is partly due to the rise of the right wing in certain states, which have a different set of priorities, their domestic economic conditions, and more investments in defence.
China is likely to play an important role at and ahead of COP30. India will not address the climate summit on Wednesday as per the latest list of speakers.
John Podesta, who served as President Biden’s Senior Advisor on Climate, said the world is moving forward despite the Trump Administration’s self-destructive assault on clean energy and climate progress. “Brazil, the United Kingdom, Japan, and now Australia have come forward with 2035 NDCs credibly tracking to net zero by 2050,” he said. “We now look to China, the world’s top emitter, to fully commit to the Paris Agreement it helped craft by issuing an NDC that charts a credible path to that country’s goal of net zero before 2060.”
Podesta said this means roughly a 30% emissions reduction, covering all GHGs, by 2035 below peak 2024 levels, which new data demonstrates that they reached.