3 ways to interpret Trump’s shocking 180 on Russia

18 comments

1. **From  Zeeshan Aleem, MSNBC opinion writer/editor:**

   President Donald Trump brusquely told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “You don’t have the cards” to defeat Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This week, he staked out a brand-new view of the conflict on Tuesday, declaring on Truth Social that Russia is a “paper tiger” and claiming that Ukraine has “great spirit” and “is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form” with the support of NATO.

   Trump’s startling new pivot caught both Moscow and Kyiv by surprise and prompted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to fire back on Wednesday: “Russia is more compared with a bear. There are no paper bears,” he told a Russian radio station. In fact, it’s not just Russia and Ukraine who were caught unawares. Nobody really knows what this means.

   Trump has sent mixed signals about his position on the war throughout his second term. At times he has publicly scolded Zelenskyy for being too determined to continue fighting. Other times, he has criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin,

   Read more: [https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-ukraine-russia-zelensky-paper-tiger-hit-back-rcna233318](https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-ukraine-russia-zelensky-paper-tiger-hit-back-rcna233318) 

2. He gave Putin a lifeline and Putin spit in his face. He’s pissed and also realizes that playing “nice guy” won’t work. Putin only speaks one language, sheer power

3. I see this as more distancing himself from all of the Ultimatums that he has made to Russia.

   To recap:

   Trump: It can happen very easily on day 1

   Doesn’t even try

   Trump: Ukraine you need to give up

   Ukraine has other ideas.

   Trump: *Stops funding Ukraine.*

   Ukraine still fights.

   Trump: There needs to be a swap

   Ukraine refuses

   Trump: Russia needs to agree to a ceasefire

   No real ceasefire

   Trump: Russia has 2 weeks.

   2 weeks later

   Trump: Russia has 2 weeks

   2 weeks later

   Trump: Russia has 4 weeks

   4 weeks later

   Trump: Ukraine can totally win this if they are funded. Here is a small package.

   Now.. noone is focusing on his lack of efficacy as a statesman and are focused on this.

   Without pushing significantly more funds and freeing up restrictions.. this is just smoke in the air.

4. It wasn’t a pivot at all. He was saying to Putin ‘I still support you but you are doing really badly and really need to pull your finger out and start actually winning this war’.

5. There is no interpreting to be done, Trump is pretty consistent in his inconsistency on all policy matters outside of the few that his voter base really cares about (immigration hardlining for example)

   He’s not really a rational actor, and applying the idea that states act rationally is a mistake with him. He’s a very classic populist and essentially just does whatever he believes makes him look best, with very little concern given to continuity of policy. He does not care.

6. >Given that Trump hasn’t announced any new *policy* positions, it’s certainly possible that he will soon return to any of the rhetorical positions on the war he has held before.

   This is everything you need to know. Maybe Trump will do another 180 in just a few months, who knows ? Until more money and more weapons actually delivered to Ukrainians, all talks are cheap.

7. Trump to Putin: “You’re making me look bad by losing. I need to look good by backing whoever is winning.”

8. This is the 5th or 6th “reversal” on Ukraine by Trump. He’ll do another in 2 weeks. How anyone is fooled by this anymore is beyond me.

9. Russia let him down.

10. Russia is literally all in on baiting NATO right now, basically daring them to do something. For some reason it seems like they want this to escalate. If Trump really is a Russian asset it makes sense he would want to clear a path to whatever goals Russia has here with their upping their antagonism of NATO.

11. A weathervane is leading the way.

    This timeline is awful.

12. Well, he can not really do anything / do not want to do any that require real efforts / spending – so he just do nothing basically, provide some words to “stay in a game”
    It is very impotent to understand, that to complete opposite of what people often saying “he is really unpredictable and doing whatever” – reality is he is really-really depend on American public opinion and really carefuller about it. And not leading it, but follow it. And war in Ukraine is not a first, second or third in priority list of public opinion. And whatever particular opinion about that war – big consensus is that “we do not want to be involved in any war” – and that then his priority to show.

13. If you keep doing shocking 180 degree turns you end up running around in circles

14. I see a couple of possibilitues. First, Trump now realizes that the Russians gave played him and Witkoff, while Kellogg’s reporting in the situation us more credible.

    Second, he finally understands that Norway is solidly pro-Ukraine, and he will never receive a Nobel Peace prize if he continues to passively support Russia.

    And third, he is just trying out a new approach, since the previous efforts made zero headway. Let’s wait two weeks, his usual timeline, and see if raises the ante or chickens out.

15. It’s all bullshit. Trump is just blustering for the media. We all know he’s scared shitless of Putin 

16. He’s going to walk away. He said Ukraine can strike russia, says its feasible to take all land back. However has not said US will help

17. Very glad for the 180 but keep in mind trump is an idiot.

18. I think Occam’s razor is in full effect here: Trump sees Ukraine winning now, and wants to take credit for it when it does happen.

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