I’ve Seen the Future of War. Europe Isn’t Ready for It

https://niallferguson.substack.com/p/ive-seen-the-future-of-war-europe

Posted by HooverInstitution

3 comments

  1. Previewing at his Substack a recent column for *The Free Press*, [Niall Ferguson](https://www.hoover.org/profiles/niall-ferguson) shares key insights into the future of armed conflict from his recent trip to Ukraine. “The war of the future is already here—and you are not sufficiently scared of it,” warns Ferguson. Extrapolating from trends already present on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, the historian argues that for today’s war planners, “the goal is vast AI-enabled swarms of drones with edge computing. We are getting there fast.” Ferguson emphasizes in this piece that few have fully grasped the implications of drone-centric warfare for great power military preparedness going forward. Focusing on European sluggishness to adapt, Ferguson writes, “The people of Poland, Romania, Estonia, and (perhaps) Denmark all now know that Russian drones are capable of entering their airspace. But have they truly grasped what that implies?”

  2. Not every war is like Ukraine. We should be careful not too learn too much from Ukraine and base our entire strategy based on the war in Ukraine. This is a mistake the author is making. The Ukraine War sees such an importance for drones because there is a parity between both sides, notably on air power (Russia doesn’t have air superiority) and drones are used as a cheap replacement for better systems that neither side is able to use. The western doctrine is based around complete air superiority which would prevent the war from turning into a stalemate where drones have such a huge place. Not to say we should ignore drones entirely, but we should not think this represent the future of all wars either.

    Thinking this is like thinking that trench warfare was back because of the Iran-Iraq War and we should base our strategy around it. A few years later the US crushed the Iraqi army in a few weeks and there was no trench warfare at all.

  3. Ferguson knows less than me about military history, and I’m just some random guy who’s read some books in his spare time. I’ll wait for someone with a minimum of seriousness.

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