The meeting of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with US President Donald Trump on September 25 unfolded against a backdrop of strained ties under the previous Biden administration.

The downturn in Türkiye-US relations was marked by disputes over Ankara’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system, Syria policy and US sanctions that restricted the access of some Turkish firms to the US market.

But in a brief exchange with reporters while bidding farewell to Erdogan on September 25, Trump described the encounter as a “great meeting” and lavished praise on Erdogan, calling him “tough” and “highly respected”.

Discussions ranged from defence, trade, and energy deals to the raging conflicts in the Middle East, with the Turkish president later hailing “meaningful progress” on key issues.

Expressing cautious optimism, experts say the high-level meeting in the White House has potentially unlocked long-term defence and economic benefits for Ankara.

“Trump’s public endorsement of Erdogan signals a notable thaw in US-Türkiye relations, marking a significant shift from the Biden administration’s stance,” Yasar Sari, director of Haydar Aliyev Centre for Eurasian Studies at Ibn Haldun University, tells TRT World.

He says both presidents share a dislike for the so-called “liberal international order” while favouring bilateralism over alliance straitjackets. Yet rhetoric alone will not suffice, he cautions.

“As we know Trump’s personality, we need time to see if the rhetoric translates into policy,” he says, adding that the meeting is a “promising step”.

Sari flagged the November congressional elections in the US as a potential pivot, where a more hawkish Congress could possibly rein in Trump’s overtures. Deeper fissures – such as Washington’s support for Israel, its backing of YPG/PYD, and Ankara’s close relations with Moscow – will not go away at once.

“While this personal diplomacy creates a positive atmosphere for short-term gains, its capacity to address deep-rooted disagreements and strengthen the long-term relationship remains uncertain,” Sari says.

The view is echoed by Ahmet Uysal, a professor of political science at Istanbul University. Highlighting the geostrategic lens of Republican administrations in the US, he calls Trump’s overture “major” as opposed to the “limited nature” of the Biden administration.

“Generally, the Republican leaders value Türkiye’s geostrategic significance more than the Democrat administrations,” Uysal tells TRT World.

 “The personal diplomacy between Trump and Erdogan will produce concrete results as it did during the first Trump era,” he says, while predicting an “energising” of ties under Trump’s “unique foreign policy perspective”.

Reviving defence ties

Few issues symbolise the ups and downs of the Türkiye-US relationship like defence procurement. 

Ankara’s 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 systems led to its ouster from the F-35 programme and CAATSA sanctions in 2020, eroding interoperability with NATO allies. 

Signs of progress during Erdogan’s US visit can potentially recast Türkiye’s role in the alliance, as it eyes dominance in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.

“Progress on the F-16 and F-35 agreements would greatly enhance Türkiye’s defence stance within NATO by addressing key capability gaps until its military complex can produce the desired capacity for the Turkish military,” says Sari.

Regaining F-35 access would not only restore cutting-edge stealth capabilities, but also mend a “major rift” with the US in 2019, he adds.

According to Matthew Bryza, a former US ambassador to Azerbaijan and an Istanbul-based expert on Eurasian affairs, Trump’s hand was “forced” by the US Congress in 2020 to impose the sanctions. 

He views the expected lifting of these sanctions as a political balm more than an economic panacea.

“The CAATSA sanctions were seen as a political insult by Türkiye, and rightfully so. Erdogan and the Turkish government will look at (the lifting of sanctions) as a gesture of goodwill,” he tells TRT World.