Tesla will report third-quarter deliveries and production figures early Thursday. But the EV giant’s biggest news of the week is the promised release of the latest version of Full Self-Driving. Tesla stock has been surging in recent weeks on self-driving optimism.

Tesla deliveries are expected to come in at 447,750, according to the analyst consensus forecast compiled by FactSet. That would be up 16.6% vs. Q2’s 384,122, but down 3.3% from 462,890 in Q3 2024.

However, not many analysts have updated targets since late July. More-recent Tesla delivery forecasts have been in the 470,000-495,000 range.

Tesla deliveries hit a record 495,570 in Q4 2024.

Tesla’s China and European registrations are running below year-earlier levels, though Chinese sales are up substantially vs. Q2.

The big driver for Q3 deliveries is the Sept. 30 expiration of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit, pulling forward demand. Buyers can take delivery later and still get the EV tax credit as long as they make a firm order by Sept. 30 with at least a nominal payment.

Still, U.S. Tesla demand will likely plunge in Q4 and remain weak for some time. CEO Elon Musk said on the Q2 earnings call that Tesla faces a few “rough” quarters following the end of U.S. tax credits.

So, whether Tesla deliveries are strong or weak won’t be that meaningful for the EV business going forward.

Compared to Europe, China and other key markets, where monthly, weekly or even daily auto sales data is available, U.S. sales aren’t that timely. So the odds that Tesla deliveries will diverge significantly from expectations are exceptionally high in Q3.

In addition to EV delivery and production figures, Tesla will report energy storage deployed in Q3. Tesla Energy has been a bright spot in the company’s current business.

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Tesla FSD v14 Release

Musk said Thursday on his social site X that Full Self-Driving v14 will have an “early wide” release this week. It’s unclear if that means all FSD users with Hardware 4.0 will gain access, or if FSD v14 will initially go to a limited number, such as Tesla influencers.

He said FSD v14.1 will follow two weeks later, followed by 14.2 soon after. “The car will feel almost like it is sentient being by 14.2,” Musk wrote.

Musk has previously described FSD v14 as “sentient.” In years past, Musk would refer to big Tesla FSD updates as “mind-blowing” or “blow your mind.”

Expect Tesla fans to gush about v14 in opening hours and days, but it could be several weeks before investors start to get a rough idea of how v14 compares to v13. FSD v13 gets about 230 miles per critical disengagement in cities via the FSD Community Tracker.

Tesla has expanded the geographical range for its ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco area, but the number of vehicles in operations remains limited. Tesla “robotaxis” all use safety drivers or monitors.

Musk has said Tesla “robotaxis” likely will not need safety monitors or drivers by year-end, though there have been few indications that FSD is ready to make the leap.

Tesla Stock Keeps Running

Tesla stock rose 3.4% to 440.40 last week, bringing the four-week tally to 31.9%. Share are closing in on the late December all-time high of 488.54.

TSLA stock enthusiasm has focused on self-driving hopes, with analyst price target hikes fanning the flames.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.