Standard Chartered Bucks Bearish Trend, Forecasts Oil Price Gains in 2026

We are in the final innings of the third quarter, and energy markets remain tepid amid bearish sentiment. Brent crude for November delivery was trading at $69.45 per barrel at 8.45 am ET on Friday, more than $10/bbl below the current year’s peak at ~81/bbl, while WTI crude was changing hands at $65.05 per barrel compared to the January peak of $78.71 per barrel. Oil prices have mostly traded ~15/bbl lower in 2025 compared to the previous year, primarily due to oversupply fears due to OPEC+ accelerating the unwinding of production cuts, coupled with sluggish global economic growth and heightened trade tensions that suppressed oil demand, leading to ample global supply outweighing demand. Increased output from non-OPEC+ countries also contributed to a build-up of oil inventories. Lately, Wall Street has been warning that oil markets could soon face a surplus, putting more pressure on already depressed oil prices. To wit, Goldman Sachs has predicted that oil markets could be oversupplied by 1.9 million b/d in 2026 amid OPEC+ unwinding production cuts and production in the Americas rising. Wall Street now sees oil prices sinking to the $50s per barrel next year, further compounding this year’s decline.

In sharp contrast, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that oil prices will move higher in the coming year driven by robust demand and a raft of economic stimulus measures.

StanChart notes that U.S. supply has hit an all-time high in the current year, but is predicting that producers will be forced to cut output due to prevailing low oil prices. On the demand side, expectations of weaker global demand in the final quarter of the year, driven by trade wars and tariffs, are likely to trigger a raft of economic stimulus in the form of rate cuts in the United States and potential for China to respond with a package of measures. Further, Ukraine’s targeted attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have forced Russia to cut refinery runs and ramp up crude exports. According to StanChart, vessel-tracking data suggests that Russia’s seaborne crude exports jumped to a 16-month high at 3.62 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August. The analysts note that Ukrainian attacks have also focused on both pipeline pumping stations and export terminals, which would pressure crude loadings further if they become significant enough to halt flows for extended periods. Meanwhile, an escalation in the unfolding tensions between Europe and Russia is likely to increase the risk premium for crude oil and natural gas.