Strategists Forecast USA Crude Inventory Drop

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team this week, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 1.5 million barrels for the week ending September 26.

“This follows a 0.6 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing looser than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.

“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a moderate reduction in crude runs (-0.3 million barrels per day) following a strong print last week,” they added.

“Among net imports, we model a significant reduction, with exports (-0.3 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.8 million barrels per day) lower on a nominal basis,” they continued.

The strategists went on to warn in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a small increase (+0.15 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists said in the report.

“We continue to believe strong implied domestic supply Q3-to-date remains an underappreciated theme,” they noted.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a larger increase (+0.7 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they stated.

The Macquarie strategists went on to note that “among products” they “look for a build in gasoline (+1.4 million barrels), with distillate (+0.1 million barrels) and jet (down minimally) nearly flat”.

“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending September 26,” the strategists said.

In its most recent weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on September 24 and included data for the week ending September 19, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 0.6 million barrels from the week ending September 12 to the week ending September 19.

That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 414.8 million barrels on September 19, 415.4 million barrels on September 12, and 413.0 million barrels on September 20, 2024.

“At 414.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about four percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in that report.

Crude oil in the SPR stood at 406.0 million barrels on September 19, 405.7 million barrels on September 12, and 381.9 million barrels on September 20, 2024, the EIA report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.687 billion barrels on September 19, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 0.2 million barrels week on week and up 38.0 million barrels year on year, the EIA report showed.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on September 22, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 3.3 million barrels for the week ending September 19.

“This follows a 9.3 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing tighter than our expectations,” the strategists stated in that report.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on October 1. It will include data for the week ending September 26. The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com