So much potential here. Maybe aplit x axis into bins?
2006-2019 is 14 drafts. 11 appears to be the high mark on the graph. So at least 3 of every pick didn’t even survive their rookie deal? That seems wrong.
Tom Brady very clearly is not on this chart. 😂
~~Wow, only 25% of even the 1st round picks make it past 4 years.~~
I’m looking at some of the data and I’m not sure I agree. Only 10 first overall picks made it 4 years? I just looked [here](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NFL_draft_picks) and everyone from 2006-2019 except JaMarcus Russell made it 4+ years in the league. The other 13 players drafted 1OA all lasted much longer than 4 years
Is this specifically for players who don’t get benched for their first 4+ years? Or stay 4+ years on the team that drafted them? That could explain the difference
Why do you make the numbers too small to read?
Might be nice to normalize y-axis by number of drafts to get a success rate of sorts. Also an average rate per round as a line graph overlay.
Rounds 6-7 look like draft rounds based on need and have about the same success rate.
![[OC] NFL players who made it 4+ seasons by draft pick (2006-2019)](https://www.europesays.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/6y7i0bmc0msf1-1920x1024.png)
10 comments
Need more data. Why 2006 cutoff?
data source: [https://github.com/nflverse/nfldata](https://github.com/nflverse/nfldata)
generated with [julius.ai](http://julius.ai)
So much potential here. Maybe aplit x axis into bins?
2006-2019 is 14 drafts. 11 appears to be the high mark on the graph. So at least 3 of every pick didn’t even survive their rookie deal? That seems wrong.
Tom Brady very clearly is not on this chart. 😂
~~Wow, only 25% of even the 1st round picks make it past 4 years.~~
I’m looking at some of the data and I’m not sure I agree. Only 10 first overall picks made it 4 years? I just looked [here](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NFL_draft_picks) and everyone from 2006-2019 except JaMarcus Russell made it 4+ years in the league. The other 13 players drafted 1OA all lasted much longer than 4 years
Is this specifically for players who don’t get benched for their first 4+ years? Or stay 4+ years on the team that drafted them? That could explain the difference
Why do you make the numbers too small to read?
Might be nice to normalize y-axis by number of drafts to get a success rate of sorts. Also an average rate per round as a line graph overlay.
Rounds 6-7 look like draft rounds based on need and have about the same success rate.
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