Firstly, there is no perceived oversupply of housing as was the case in the 2000s; indeed, quite the opposite. In the 2000s, around 550,000 new homes were approved per year, compared to the creation of 400,000 households. Since 2021, around 118,000 new homes have been approved annually, with a creation of 226,000 households, resulting in an accumulated housing deficit of more than 500,000 units since then. In addition, investment in residential construction remains broadly stable in recent quarters and stands at around 6% of GDP, whereas in the 2000s, in the midst of the housing bubble, it was practically double that level.
Secondly, the financial sector is much less exposed to a hypothetical sudden change in the housing market cycle. Credit to the developer and construction sector has remained at around 5% of GDP in recent quarters, a far cry from the ratios above 40% of GDP registered in the late 2000s. As for mortgage credit to households for the purchase of homes, at 30.6% of GDP it is well below the levels of the previous boom (63.6% of GDP in 2006). Moreover, since the pandemic fixed-rate mortgages have become widespread in the Spanish market, accounting for over 50% of all those granted since 2022 (in the 2000s they represented just 2% of the total). Also, the ratio of the number of mortgages to the number of sales remains relatively stable (68.0% in S1 2025 compared to 66.3% in 2024). That is, approximately two in every three transactions currently involve the buyer taking out a mortgage. In addition, there does not appear to be any significant increase in purchases for investment purposes. For instance, the percentage of sales in which the buyer is a legal entity was 11.5% in
S1 2025, which represents a slight increase compared to the 10.8% recorded in 2024, but is still below the average for the period 2014-2019 (12.8%).
Por último, la situación financiera de las familias está mucho más saneada que en los años 2000. A pesar del repunte de la concesión de hipotecas, la deuda de los hogares apenas supone el 42,5% del PIB, cuando en 2010 suponía algo más del 80%. Por otra parte, y de forma muy relevante para evitar la repetición de errores del pasado, no se observa una relajación de los estándares de concesión de crédito. Si bien es cierto que se observa un cierto repunte en la concesión de hipotecas por un importe superior al 80% del valor de tasación (10,9% en el 1T 2025), ello se debe en gran parte a los programas de ayuda al acceso a la primera vivienda para determinados colectivos (jóvenes, familias monoparentales, etc.), que son los que tienen mayores dificultades para acumular el ahorro necesario para acceder a una vivienda en propiedad.
Finally, households are in a much healthier financial position than they were in the 2000s. Despite the rebound in mortgage lending, household debt stands at only 42.5% of GDP, compared to just over 80% in 2010. What is more, there are no signs of a relaxation of lending standards – a key point if we are to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. While it is true that there is a slight upturn in the granting of mortgages for an amount exceeding 80% of the appraisal value (10.9% in Q1 2025), this is largely due to the programmes in place to help certain groups to buy their first home (young people, single-parent families, etc.), as they are the ones who have the most difficulties in accumulating the savings required to become homeowners.