An afternoon tea meeting with a president is not the sort of invitation you get every day as a foreign correspondent.
But that is exactly where I found myself on Tuesday afternoon in Finland’s capital, Helsinki — having a cup of tea and some tiny pastries over a chat with President Alexander Stubb.
I was on assignment in Finland when I received a surprise invitation to join a small group of journalists from publications in Kyiv, Brussels, London, Madrid and Rome for the 45-minute meeting.
After passing security checks, we took our seats around the long, wooden dining table at Stubb’s residence, surrounded by an eclectic mix of Finnish art on one side, and long, glass windows looking out to pine trees and the local neighbourhood on the other.
The conversation traversed geopolitics and global security, but mainly, it revealed a lot about Donald Trump. Here’s why.
Alexander Stubb hosted reporters, including the ABC, in Helsinki this week. (ABC News: Daniel Pannett)
Despite leading a country with a population of just 5.7 million — that’s less than a quarter the size of Australia — Stubb is a rising force in geopolitics.
Finland shares a 1,340-kilometre land border with Russia (roughly the same distance as driving from Sydney to Adelaide).
It’s been a staunch ally of Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion three-and-a-half years ago, and Stubb has become a close confidant of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
But the Finnish leader is also building a solid relationship with Trump, which makes him better placed than most to observe how the US president is going about trying to achieve a peace deal for Ukraine.
He was part of a core group of European leaders who travelled to the White House for a debrief with the US president after his August in-person summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
He’s also joined other high-level video calls with the US leader.
Donald Trump and Alexander Stubb were all smiles after their round at Mar-a-Lago earlier this year. (Instagram: @tpkanslia)
“I think President Trump is working, if not around the clock, but at least every day with trying to end Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine,” Stubb, 57, told our group this week.
“I think he began with carrots, to Russia and to Putin, and having seen that carrots rarely work with the Russians, he’s moved to the stick stage.
“Now it’s just a question of how big the stick is going to be.”
When asked to elaborate on the stick analogy, Stubb joked, “a driver”, which is the biggest and most powerful golf club.
“He has 14 clubs in his bag, and they range from sanctions to tariffs, both primary and secondary, so I guess that’s four sticks,” he said.
Like President Trump, Finland’s president knows a thing or two about golf.
He was once in his country’s national team and made global headlines back in March when he played a round with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.
Over several hours, the pair spoke about foreign policy and the war in Ukraine, with Stubb reportedly telling Trump that Putin could not be trusted.
It was a discussion some analysts have credited with helping to change the US president’s perspective about Russia’s long-time leader.
Alexander Stubb (foreground) has built a solid relationship with Donald Trump. (Reuters: Al Drago)
Stubb believes Trump can end Ukraine war
Stubb, who described himself as a “realistic optimist” during our chat, seemed confident the US president could help end the war in Ukraine eventually.
“I’ve had the possibility to work with President Trump quite closely over the past few months,” Stubb said.
“I think the fact that he met President Zelenskyy in New York [during last month’s UN General Assembly] and gave promises on military equipment is a cause for optimism, and I think also the sentiment that President Trump is now running out of patience with Putin is a cause for optimism, so we’ll see how the Russians react.”
Stubb said that for all the threats and intimidation — including well-documented instances of drones and planes encroaching on NATO airspace in the past few weeks — he thought Putin was “beginning to feel the heat”.
“This time last year … the [Russian] economy was doing fairly well, and it’s not now,” he said.
Alexander Stubb and Donald Trump speak during the funeral service for Pope Francis at the Vatican this year. (Reuters: Dylan Martinez)
But some analysts argue that while ordinary Russians might be feeling the effects of inflation, and sanctions, those at the top of the country’s power vertical are not.
They also point out Moscow continues to have strong relationships with countries such as Brazil, North Korea, India, South Africa and China.
“I plead to China … it would take one phone call from President Xi Jinping to President Putin to end this war,” Stubb said.
“It is, of course, not as simple as that, but I don’t think we should underestimate the role of China in forcing Russia to end this conflict.”
Alexander Stubb says China could have a powerful role in ending the war in Ukraine. (ABC News: Daniel Pannett)
In the event of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire, Finland has joined the France- and United Kingdom-led Coalition of the Willing to assist Ukraine with security guarantees, including forming what has been described as “a reassurance force”.
Kyiv’s European allies, as well as other countries, including Australia, are also part of that group.
I asked the president how support from as far away as Australia could make a difference.
“I think it’s key. It just shows that this is not only a European endeavour, or only a transatlantic endeavour,” he said.
“It was instrumental to get in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea … Canada, and then of course Norway and Iceland, who are not EU members. This just shows the broadness of it.
Is that a hint that Australia, which has had a diverse peacekeeping history since 1947, will provide boots on the ground?
The Australian government has not yet announced what Australia’s role would be.
“I kind of feel sorry for [the Australians], because every time we have [coalition video calls], it’s in the middle of the night their time, but, heroically, they are there,” Stubb said.
The temporary residence of Finland’s President Alexander Stubb in Helsinki. (ABC News: Daniel Pannett)