This briefing analyses the EU economy’s resource use to assess its transition to less material-intensive consumption patterns, lowering waste generation as a result. It tries to assess if circular economy strategies such as circular business models are increasingly being taken up, scaling up and having an impact.
Both material use and waste generation show no signs of a significant reduction in the EU. This indicates that the EU has not yet transitioned to a low material intensity and less wasteful circular economy.
Recently-adopted policies addressing product circularity have the potential to break the link between prosperity and high material use, if implemented well and swiftly. However, there are no signs of circular business models scaling up across Europe.
The targets of significantly reducing material use and waste generation are largely not on track. Each EU citizen still uses about 14 tonnes of materials and generates 5 tonnes of waste annually, which are unsustainably high levels.
Key policies
The Eighth Environment Action Programme includes a non-binding, EU-wide target for ‘significantly decreasing the Union’s material and consumption footprints to bring them into planetary boundaries as soon as possible’. The zero pollution action plan calls for a significant reduction of waste generation by 2030. The 2020 circular economy action plan sets out measures to bring Europe closer to this goal; for example, by making products more sustainable, enhancing waste policies and focusing on key value chains.
Past trends (10-15 years)
Trends/developments show a mixed picture
Both the EU’s waste generation and material footprint show a relatively stable trend since 2010 (Figure 1). Both indicators show signs of a modest relative decoupling from expenditure on consumption, indicating that the EU is becoming better at using resources more efficiently. Economic downturns — as in 2020 — impact material use and waste generation. However, both bounce back when the economy recovers. On the other hand, both the material footprint and waste amounts are unsustainably high, meaning that circular economy strategies seem to only have made minor impacts so far.
Literature on circular business models that aim to offer a similar product or service but with a lower material use — such as, for example, Product-Service-Systems— indicate that these models largely still operate only in niche markets and have not yet scaled up to influence the EU economy broadly, apart from a few long-established business models (e.g. workwear or printer rental).
Outlook (10-15 years)
Trends/developments expected to show a mixed picture
Observed trends for material footprint and waste generation show a close correlation with consumption expenditure; there is no sustained absolute reduction for either metric. This means that in a future, growing EU economy, material use and waste generation are unlikely to substantially decrease.
On the other hand, since 2020, a large range of policies supporting the transition to a more circular economy have been proposed and/or adopted. Such policies mainly focus on product circularity, for example by extending product life spans (e.g. the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation and the Construction Products Regulation), which has the potential to reduce material use and waste. However, their effect on material use and waste depends strongly on their implementation.
Some existing circular business models have the potential to lower material use while providing the same service, but their upscaling potential is uncertain.
Prospects of meeting policy targets, 2030/2050
2030 Largely not on track to meet targets
The targets to significantly reduce the EU’s material footprint and waste generation are closely linked, as one reinforces the other. Both metrics are linked with economic growth, making it very difficult to significantly reduce them in a growing economy. While policies have been introduced to break this link, there is a lack of both more specific and binding targets. There is also a lack of strong, targeted instruments for preventing waste and reducing materials use through, for example, demand-side measures.
2050 No specific policy targets
Robustness
Data on waste generation and consumption expenditure trends are well-established and robust, whereas data on the EU’s material footprint are modelled using established methodologies. Trend data on the market penetration of less material-intensive business models are not available. Outlook information is sparse, and the outlook assessment therefore relies on qualitative information and expert judgement.
Charts/mapsFigure 1: Trends in waste generation, material footprint and consumption expenditure, EU-27