China Has Broken Through Trump’s Tariff War. India Can Learn From It.

With US President Donald Trump changing the rules of agri-trading by imposing tariffs and forcing nations to buy American commodities, many countries including India have opened markets for American goods such as cotton. But one country, China, is charting a different route and making rural America bleed out. China is a major destination for US agri-exports and by recently shunning soybean imports from the US, China is causing a deep panic in rural America.

By banning imports of pork ,corn, sorghum, poultry, etc., China has swept the rug under Trump’s feet and delivered an agro-diplomacy masterstroke.

So let’s analyse the situation. It all began with Trump threatening to impose upwards of 140% tariffs on Chinese goods. Washington has also dialled up the anti-Chinese rhetoric and specially focused on BRICS nations such as Russia, Brazil, India and China to be supporter of “Russia-Ukraine conflict”.

With the exception of Russia, Brazil and India are the biggest victims of the trade war. Meanwhile China, adopting an aggressive agro-diplomacy policy has managed to get extensions after extensions before the tariffs kick in.

How did China do this? As the old Zen saying about the perfect attack goes, “grabbing the spear, contra-wise, piercing the man who had come to pierce you,” China has attacked Trump’s jugular vein – American farmers. The loss of soybean exports alone is shaking up the midwest.

The main regions affected are key soybean producing regions like Illinois (16%), Iowa (14%), Indiana (8%), Minnesota (8%), and Ohio (8%) accounting for roughly 118.84 Million metric tonnes of soybeans. States like North Dakota export 70% of their GMO soybean to China. With one single import ban, China has made the US farm economy tremble.

The next agri-commodity is corn. Paired with Soyabean, Maize is the top bread winner for American farmers. China also scrapped corn imports from the Usa. Keep in mind that the US is the top corn producer in the world.

By rejecting US imports, China has caused major damage to Trump states like Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, South Dakota and Kanas. China has been the top export destination for US corn. By refusing US corn, China has delivered another blow to Trump’s voter base.

China is not only refusing to buy US corn, but also has banned poultry and pork imports for the US. Most of US’s GMO corn goes into the rearing animals like pork, chicken, beef. China rejected over 12,000 metric tonnes of US pork and done the same with poultry and beef imports from the US. What all this means is if there are lesser meat exports to China, US meat producing farmers and industrial meat operations will be marred by over-production and falling prices.

The price of corn and other cattle feed will also plummet due to over supply. Economies of states like Iowa (pork), Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Colorado, and Wyoming (cattle and pork) and Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas (chicken) will be severely hurt and this will have a direct impact on farmers’ incomes.

The US is the top producer of beef, poultry meat and also 3rd largest producer of pork in the world. So the question is where will all the surplus meat go?

China sharpened the attack by refusing to take US sorghum also which will impact major production hubs like Kansas (57%) and Texas (25%). The USA currently is the top producer of sorghum in the world.

If one colours all the states affected by China retaliatory stance, all of the US farm belts will be painted red. Many farmers are scared as banks are recalling loans, and panic spreads as the fear of foreclosures looms over the country side. Experts are also calling this the worst crisis since the 1980 farm crisis of America. Unfortunately, all roads lead to Washington for this economic blunder.

Meanwhile, phase two of the agro-diplomacy has kicked in, China has already been making new friends within the BRICS network. China has successfully secured deals with Brazil for soybean, sorghum and other agri-commodities to fill the gap.

It is also refusing to give into Washington’s demands, and without even firing a bullet has pushed the American farmers into a deep economic quagmire. In the long run, if Washington is not able to control the damages, this could result in negative publicity in rural America and a backlash for the Trump’s trade wars.

What India can learn from China

In light of this Chinese agro-diplomatic manoeuvre which has broken through Trump’s defences, what path should India take? Naturally, one that in the best interest of our nation and also advances regional and BRICS interests at the same time. We need a multi-aligned foreign policy and not place our fate in the hands of the USA.

We have to take lessons from the Cold War diplomacy. Perhaps it time to balance US hegemony, we need to follow China’s lead, and try to forget the domestic squabbles for a while. We need to foster deeper agrarian ties for the mutual defence against Trump’s juggernauts.

China has curtailed agri-goods from India, like pork. We should have a newer round of negotiations with the Chinese and supply them agri-surpluses from India. These will be in the national and economic interests of both our countries.

BRICS nations are already calling Trump’s tariffs “means of coercion”, and hence we must come closer economically. Russian oil and natural gas can supply for the needs for our nation and also with the help of China, most other import requirements can be met. China and Russia can become markets for Indian exports again.

And if we target the EU and other BRICS nations, we could find a balance in the long run that can safeguard our dignity and profits. India at this stage needs to give a call for another non-aligned movement through the BRICS platform, only then could we dream of escaping the US hegemony and safeguard our farmers at the same time.

This article went live on October sixth, two thousand twenty five, at forty-eight minutes past one in the afternoon.

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