Hi, I'm sharing this story's chart showing how María Corina Machado's odds surged hours before the Nobel Peace Prize official announcement.

The Nobel Peace Prize organisers are investigating a potential leak after online betting surged in favour of the Venezuelan opposition leader just hours before she was announced as this year’s winner.

Machado was polling at about 3.7% on Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, until just after midnight Oslo time on Friday. But her odds jumped within minutes to 31.5% and then 73.5% despite not having been tipped as a favourite — either by experts or by the media — ahead of the prize announcement at 11am.

The Nobel Institute confirmed reports in Norwegian media that it was investigating the matter.

Source: Polymarket

Victoria – FT social team

Posted by financialtimes

28 comments

  1. Betting on nobel? What a crappy thing jeeez.

    Also, who the hell bets on a wannabe dictator for peace nobel? People are dellusional.

  2. The worlds biggest loser loses again. Nice to see he’s consistent.

  3. the betting markets are such a terrible idea. it’s obvious than insiders are going to bet on things and they have no way of tracking it.

  4. I bet on Manny Machado. Padres early exit against the Cubs must have ruined his chances.

  6. apologies for being “that guy” but this is showing probability. odds are inversely correlated with probability, so her odds would have collapsed (reduced dramatically, eg from 10/1 to 2/1) as the probability increased.

  7. Sartre turned one of these meaningless prizes down. Tells me all I need to know about it.

  9. Polymarket is just a tool for insiders to get rich. You see this happen on nearly every single bet that involves an announcement, political and business.

  10. Yulia Navalnaya’s line looks like donald trump’s signature.

  11. So you’re saying the betting markets were spectacularly wrong until the rumors we all heard started coming out. Great job betting markets.

  12. Well yeah, Polymarket is the hands-down favorite for insider trading

  13. Betting markets are no longer useful at all. Back when only hardcore political junkies used them it made sense, you had people who were extremely tuned in to politics controlling the markets movements.Now you have plenty of idiots who just throw money on whatever candidate they like

    Case in point, trump shouldn’t be on this chart at all, nobody with more than 5 brain cells actually thought he had a chance, let alone thought he would win, but because he has legions of morons blinded to reality he shows up.

  14. My favorite fact I’ve learned today about this woman is that she was a leader of a coup in Venezuela in 2002, what the hell is this award even for.

  16. The SEC let celebrities get away with rug-pulling crypto coins and now they let blatant insider trading happen.

    Such a useless organization run by greedy idiots.

  19. Polymarket, gross….I first heard of them for being The Young Turks sponsor or something….ohh yeah the Polymarket studios, ugh.

  20. How in the actual fuck does trump have a line that’s not negative.

  22. This lady invited a foreign nation to invade her country to overthrow the government. And she got a noble peace prize. This is a U.S. puppet.

  23. Trump didn’t do anything last year to merit anything.

  24. These kinds of betting markets are crazy because they largely depend on insider trading over data that has no real reason to be protected. Who really would give a shit if the winner of the prize got leaked a bit early if these markets didn’t exist? It would be gauche to do so but it wouldn’t be *that* bad.

  25. Just to point out, never in this data was trump ever favored to win lol

  27. So no electricity peace prize is only reserved for cringe candidates now? All three are lame candidates.

  28. The Nobel prize commission is dodgy af, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were doing insider betting. 

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