How China’s rare earth dominance became a geopolitical flashpoint

TBS Report

12 October, 2025, 01:25 pm

Last modified: 12 October, 2025, 01:33 pm

Beijing’s geopolitical use of rare earths

China views its rare earth dominance as a strategic instrument in global politics. It has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to use export controls as leverage in diplomatic and trade disputes.

The “Trump Card” Strategy: Rare earths are often seen as Beijing’s “trump card” against Washington in trade negotiations.
2010 Precedent: China first signaled its readiness to weaponize rare earths in 2010 when it halted exports to Japan during a territorial dispute-prompting Tokyo to diversify its supply chain.
Export Controls Expansion: In October 2025, Beijing expanded restrictions on several elements and refining technologies. The Ministry of Commerce stated that overseas defense users would not receive export licenses, while semiconductor-related applications would be reviewed individually.
Strategic Insight: The licensing process gives China detailed visibility into foreign supply chains, helping it anticipate and influence industrial vulnerabilities abroad.

However, analysts say overusing export controls could backfire. Sustained restrictions may accelerate global efforts to establish alternative sources and refining capacity, eroding China’s long-term monopoly.

Jars containing rare earth minerals produced by Australia’s Lynas Corp from its Mount Weld operations are seen near Laverton, northeast of Perth, Australia, August 23, 2019/ Reuters

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Jars containing rare earth minerals produced by Australia's Lynas Corp from its Mount Weld operations are seen near Laverton, northeast of Perth, Australia, August 23, 2019/ Reuters

Jars containing rare earth minerals produced by Australia’s Lynas Corp from its Mount Weld operations are seen near Laverton, northeast of Perth, Australia, August 23, 2019/ Reuters

Trump’s tariff war and its ripple effects

The trade tensions that began under President Trump have intensified the strategic use of rare earths in global politics.

China’s latest export curbs on rare earth elements and magnets-imposed in April 2025-were widely seen as retaliation for new US tariffs on Chinese goods. The restrictions caused temporary supply shortages and disrupted global production lines in electric vehicle and electronics manufacturing.

The US trade measures, initially launched under Section 232 and 301 authorities, affected thousands of products worth roughly $380 billion in 2018–2019. By 2025, tariff rates on US imports had risen to their highest average since 1943.

The resulting cycle of retaliatory actions has deepened uncertainty in global markets. China’s rare earth restrictions often coincide with broader moves designed to counter US technology controls and strengthen Beijing’s bargaining power ahead of high-level negotiations.

Analysts say China’s approach-tightening export controls to signal leverage without completely cutting off supply-is designed to maintain pressure while avoiding a full-scale collapse in global supply chains.

The broader impact

The rare earths dispute underscores how strategic materials have become central to global economic competition. The United States, Japan, and Europe are investing heavily in new mining projects and refining technologies, but building capacity to rival China could take years.

For now, Beijing’s grip on rare earths remains a powerful geopolitical tool-and a persistent vulnerability for industries worldwide that depend on them.