UBS and Goldman Sachs have both raised long-term gold forecasts, citing a weaker dollar, fiscal stress, and declining confidence in traditional safe-haven instruments. These flows are providing a strong floor beneath the market regardless of short-term volatility.
Gold Price Forecast: Risk Calendar and Policy Headwinds Favor Further Upside
Looking ahead, this week’s calendar features a critical appearance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday and the rescheduled CPI report on Friday, both of which will shape rate cut probabilities heading into the October FOMC meeting. Without hard data, traders will be forced to extrapolate from tone and guidance—particularly around labor market softness and inflation stickiness.
Powell’s language will be scrutinized for signs the Fed is preparing to shift from data-dependence to risk management. Any acknowledgment of policy asymmetry (i.e. cuts being easier than hikes) will reinforce gold’s current tailwind. Likewise, if CPI shows any downside surprise—particularly in the core figure—that will likely accelerate the market’s timeline for additional cuts.
Markets will also be watching for further reaction to Trump’s tariff threat. If rhetoric escalates or China responds, safe-haven demand could deepen, especially with broader political dysfunction in the U.S. and Europe already in play.
Overall, the fundamental bias for gold remains bullish this week. Rate cut expectations are well-entrenched, central banks are buying, geopolitical risk is rising, and there’s no clean resolution on the fiscal or political front in any major economy. The only meaningful threat to the gold bid would be a surprise hawkish turn from Powell or a hotter-than-expected CPI—both low-probability outcomes given current conditions.
Weekly Technical Outlook: Topping Risk Within Bullish Trend
Gold closed last week at $4016.68, marking its eighth straight weekly gain and extending a rally that now falls inside the 7–10 week window where short-term tops typically form. A weekly close below $4016.68 would confirm a weekly closing price reversal top, opening the door to a 2–3 week correction. That move would likely be tactical—not a change in primary trend—unless backed by a material shift in fundamentals.
Momentum holds as long as the market stays above last week’s low at $3884.11. A break beneath that level would form a minor top and shift the short-term tone bearish. On the flip side, a breakout above the $4059.35 high would reaffirm the broader uptrend and push gold into fresh discovery territory, with psychological levels like $4100 and $4200 back in play.
Until a confirmed reversal develops, the technical bias remains bullish—but stretched. Traders should stay alert to any shift in tone from Powell or CPI-driven repricing that could catalyze a near-term pause or shakeout.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.