Key Takeaways from the ISW:
Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of road passing through Russian territory near the Russia-Estonia border on October 10 after Estonian border guards observed a small group of Russian military personnel without insignia in the area. American intelligence sharing with Ukraine has reportedly been crucial in increasing the efficacy of Ukraine’s long-range drone strike campaign targeting the Russian energy sector in recent months. The Kremlin is attempting to stabilize its domestic gasoline market to offset the consequences of Ukraine’s long-strike campaign against refineries. US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed possible US sales of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in an October 12 call, as the Kremlin continues its reflexive control campaign to deter the US from sending Ukraine Tomahawks. Russia’s effort to generate increased military recruitment through high financial incentives is reportedly losing momentum, indicating that Russia’s main method for recruiting volunteers for its war may be hitting diminishing returns. Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Kupyansk and Siversk. Russian forces advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and near Pokrovsk.
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