Putin Is Not Winning

3 comments

1. Andrew Ryvkin: “After taking over from the ailing Boris Yeltsin a quarter century ago, [Vladimir] Putin started his presidency by projecting a near-comical image of manliness and invincibility. But no one in the Kremlin could have imagined how the West would adopt and then amplify this narrative. If you Google phrases such as *victory for Putin* and *big win for Putin*, you find news stories stretching back years: Brexit, Syria, Donald Trump’s presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, Marine Le Pen competing in France’s presidential election, the Israel-Hamas war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is now the public face of opposition to Russian imperialism, but even his election in 2019 was interpreted as a win for Putin.

   “Putin, a ruthless septuagenarian bent on restoring Russia to its imperial glory, is simply too good a villain for Western politicians and media commentators to ignore. Casting him as omniscient and unstoppable creates a clear story amid the chaos of global affairs. For Trump’s critics, emphasizing Putin’s strength has become another way of denigrating the U.S. president. But this emotionally convenient mythmaking spills over into news and political analysis.

   “Early in my career, I worked inside several propaganda outlets in Russia. All had an unspoken rule: No matter the crisis, Putin can’t lose. Many Western commentators are unwittingly following that rule too. But overestimating Putin’s power means doing his job for him. It means amplifying every one of his threats, mistaking posturing for reality, and making policy decisions based not on facts but on what Putin wants us to believe. And although he has had some successes—his annexation of Crimea, to name one—Putin’s biggest win comes from convincing the world that he’s winning, even when he isn’t.”

   Read more: [https://theatln.tc/xlspQsPJ](https://theatln.tc/xlspQsPJ)

2. Russia shifted to war of attrition once their initial shock and awe maneuver warfare strategy spectacularly failed by April 2022. In a war of attrition, the key determinants of victory are manpower and firepower and Russia enjoys decisive advantage on both of these fronts. Moreover “winning” in attritional war is not measured by territories captured but by the ability to attrite enemy’s capability to fight.

   Millions of Ukrainians left the country and those that remain are increasingly reluctant to fight as manifested by Ukraine’s struggles with recruitment. Granted Russians also don’t want to fight but Russia has 5x the population of Ukraine so can find enough volunteers by offering generous bonuses. Russia has massive domestic weapons industry that is out-producing all of Europe for many key weapon systems and ammunitions. Given the lopsided dynamic of this war it is to see how Russia is not winning.

   Economic factors are irrelevant for many reasons but mainly because the Russians see this as existential one and are willing to bear significant costs to win.

3. I just read that nato countries are lowering their support for Ukraine so we shouldn’t be pleased with our selves

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