Vice President JD Vance and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) are locked in a tight hypothetical 2028 presidential election race, according to a new poll from Emerson College.
The poll, released Friday, asked voters to choose between Vance and Newsom if the 2028 presidential election was held today. The poll found that voters were largely divided, with 46% choosing Vance, 45% choosing Newsom and 10% undecided.
Overall, Newsom has picked up 3 percentage points and Vance has picked up 1 percentage point since July’s poll . However, the October results are basically unchanged from when the poll was last conducted in August, when the two men each clinched 44% support.
Vance and Newsom are seen as likely frontrunners for the 2028 presidential race, as President Donald Trump cannot seek a third term in office. No one has officially launched a bid for the White House yet, as speculation swirls over who the Democrats will nominate as their candidate after former Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump.
The poll also questioned voters on which party they would like to see win the midterm elections next year. Forty-four percent of voters said they plan to vote for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, while 43% said they plan to vote for Republicans. Another 14% are undecided, according to the poll.
“The 2026 congressional ballot and the hypothetical 2028 matchup between Vance and Newsom also remain unchanged, suggesting a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“It will be interesting to see whether ‘threats to democracy’ will influence voter attitudes, or if the dominant factor continues to be the economy, which voters, particularly women and younger voters, see as heading in the wrong direction,” he added.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 registered voters from Oct. 13-14. It has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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