Reform UK push Scottish Labour into third place in bombshell Holyrood poll. The poll shows the SNP heading for a fifth term and a comfortable victory in May.

by bottish

26 comments

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  4. You beat me to it, Bottish.

    I thought this seat projection from Mark McGeoghegan using [https://devolvedelections.co.uk](https://devolvedelections.co.uk/) was fun. 69 seats, nice, etc.

    https://preview.redd.it/d0brhvnikfxf1.jpeg?width=1911&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=384285c2aaeeaaf402e20c048b54b3b8f7b93298

    u/Ballotboxscot has brought together the polling results [in an easy to copy and paste format.](https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3m43jt32jg22f) Allan’s work and analysis remains great, and you should kick some money towards his wee not-Patreon thing.

    >New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 22 Sep – 14 Oct (changes vs 4 – 16 Sep):

    >List:

    >SNP \~ 29% (-2)

    >RUK \~ 20% (+4)

    >Lab \~ 17% (-1)

    >Con \~ 12% (-1)

    >Grn \~ 10% (+2)

    >LD \~ 10% (-1)

    >Alba \~ 2% (nc)

    > Constituency:

    >SNP \~ 34% (-3)

    >RUK \~ 22% (+4)

    >Lab \~ 18% (-2)

    >Con \~ 10% (-1)

    >LD \~ 8% (+1)

    >Grn \~ 7% (+2)

  5. Keith is going to be the death of Labour.

    Seeing their paucity of ambition, perhaps it’s time to let them die.

  6. A rotten cabbage could push Scottish labour to third, why they waste money in Scotland is crazy they are as hated as the tories!

  7. Please no more SNP, how long can this party hang on to power playing the grievance card and dangling carrots. We need a change and some different ideas in Scotland.

  8. Extraordinary how many comments seem to be about Labour being lower in the polls, and not Reform popularity rising in Scotland.

  9. I don’t see labour in general recovering from this let alone the dregs that is Scottish Labour.

  10. So this really consolidates the trend of Reform making significant gains that we saw in  earlier polls . I didn’t expect them to do this well in the constituency votes, just in the list ones. Pretty depressing stuff, and I’m worried there might be a “shy Tory” effect at play.  The actual holyrood election results could be higher.    Looks like Reform and the grievances that drive their popularity aren’t an exclusively English problem any more. 

    Grim stuff. 

  11. Nice!

    We shouldn’t get complacent though – people still need to go out and vote.

  12. Is it a bombshell if it’s saying what everyone expected it to say?

  13. so the right wing are moving to Reform and desserting Badenoch?

    isn’t that normal Scottish politics?

  14. Labour aren’t the party of the working class people any more. They are the party of the university educated class and Muslim community. SNP does a better job of speaking for the working class but even they are starting to fall into the same Labour trap with chasing after the latest cause celebre.

  15. Isn’t this manufactured news? Every day there is a different poll and the idea that any party in power should be chasing these poll ratings is terrible.

    There are fundamental changes that need to be made to get the economy growing to pay for the benefits that we want and to get them to the people that need them. Just jumping straight into increased benefits would have collapsed the bond market and given us another Truss moment. There are things that Labour are getting wrong, but the biggest one is trying to chase reform, instead of tackling party funding to cut off their money.

  17. I don’t understand why it’s a bombshell.
    Since Stalin took over he’sj went back on every promise he’s made and continued with tbe decimation of Scotland.
    Only idiots didn’t see this coming.

  18. Cannot fathom why a Scot would want to vote reform. And I’m not saying that because they’re right wing, listen to the things they say about Scotland and dissolving the Scottish parliament etc. It would be even more against our own self interest than the rest of the UK.

  19. It’s a pity Scottish Labour insist on being a branch of the UK. I would probably vote for them in an independent Scotland

  20. It’s fine, spending billions on a digital ID nobody asked for will surely bring those voters suffering from inflation back or something.

  21. Not a fan of Labour , never have been or ever will, but the rise of reform in Scotland is sickening

  22. But I thought the nats said that no one in Scotland votes for reform 🤔🤔🤔

  23. Around the country people have not learned their lesson about this man. FFS we are doomed. We are the most gullible and stupid nation ever. There is no hope. We are blind with hatred of others. We deserve exactly what we get. Maybe we need this.

  24. Not so worried about Labour but more worried because Reform uk would do well.

  25. Polling guru Mark Diffley estimated that such a result would give John Swinney’s party 55 seats, Reform 22, Labour 19, the Tories 12, the Greens 10 and the Lib Dems 11.

    So that means in aggregate:

    good guys: 95

    wanks: 34

  26. Lowest seat estimate for the SNP in a wee while, Reform’s rise isn’t just impacting Labour

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