The ASX is set to start the week higher after a broad-based rally on Wall Street pushed all major US indices to record closes. Futures were up 26 points, or 0.3%, at 8:30 am AEDT, following a risk-on session that saw investors cheer cooler US inflation data and upbeat earnings results from corporate heavyweights.

ASX recap

The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.15% to 9,019 on Friday, weighed down by banks and consumer stocks. But tech and materials provided a bright spot, with the All Tech index gaining 1.3% and the materials sector up 0.4%. Lithium producers in particular saw a strong bounce as investors bet the sector’s three-year bear market could finally be nearing its end. The Small Ords index added 0.15%, while the All Ords eased 0.13%.

Wall Street hits fresh highs

US stocks surged on Friday after September inflation came in cooler than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its upcoming meeting. The S&P 500 rose 0.79%, the Nasdaq added 1.15%, and the Dow Jones climbed 1.01% — all closing at new record highs.

Nearly a third of S&P 500 companies have now reported quarterly results, with earnings per share growth averaging 9.2%, well above the 7.9% forecast. More than 85% of those companies have beaten analyst expectations. Tech led the gains, up 1.6%, as optimism around AI spending and corporate investment continued to support the sector.

Commodities and currencies

Commodity prices were mixed. Gold slipped 0.3% to US$4,112 an ounce, easing from recent highs after 10 consecutive weeks of gains. Copper edged 0.3% higher to US$5.09 per pound, while oil softened — WTI down 0.2% to US$61.50 a barrel and Brent steady near US$65.90. Iron ore was unchanged at US$105.50 per tonne.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.4% to US65.4¢ amid the softer US CPI print, while the US 10-year Treasury yield steadied at 4.00%. Bitcoin rose 1.7% to US$113,000 as broader risk sentiment improved.

Outlook and key events

Markets enter a packed week for central banks, with policy announcements scheduled for the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada. Closer to home, RBA Governor Michele Bullock will deliver a fireside chat tonight, while Australia’s Q3 CPI report on Wednesday looms as the key domestic event.

Economists expect trimmed-mean inflation to rise 0.8% for the quarter, keeping annual growth steady around 2.7%. A “Goldilocks” result could extend support for equities and give the RBA room to maintain its wait-and-see stance heading into November.

Stocks to watch


Resources: Mining shares could find support from improving sentiment after lithium, copper, and uranium ETFs rose between 3% and 5% in offshore trade. Perseus Mining reaffirmed FY26 production guidance after a solid quarterly, while Pantoro and Viva Energy also reported stable results.
Financials: Bank stocks may recover some of Friday’s losses after the strong global lead, though investors remain cautious ahead of inflation data.
Tech: US strength should buoy local peers, with growth names such as Life360 and Block likely to benefit from the rotation back into risk assets.

What’s on today

Alongside Bullock’s speech, Temas Resources is due to list on the ASX at 11:30 am AEDT, while Bega Cheese holds its AGM. The local calendar remains light until mid-week, with China’s September industrial profits data also on watch for signs of momentum in the world’s second-largest economy.

The bottom line

With Wall Street setting new highs on cooler inflation and resilient earnings, the ASX looks set to join in the optimism. Still, traders will be watching closely for Wednesday’s CPI — the next major test of whether the recent rally in risk assets can extend into November.