About 300 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year of LNG export capacity is set to be added by 2030, according to IEA’s latest, medium-term outlook. This level of growth is primarily supported by liquefaction capacity additions in the United States and Qatar.
Over 80 bcm of annual LNG liquefaction capacity has been sanctioned in the United States throughout this year, an all-time high for the US LNG sector. This unprecedented worldwide expansion is expected to strengthen global supply security and ease market pressures following a period of tightness. Though gas markets have gradually rebalanced following the supply shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prices have remained well above historical levels.
The report’s base case sees natural gas demand rising by nearly 1.5 per cent annually between 2024 and 2030, which translates to an increase of 380 bcm in absolute terms. The Asia Pacific region would account for half of growth, and the Middle East, where countries like Saudi Arabia are switching from oil to gas for power systems, would contribute almost 30 per cent. The report also forecasts an 8 per cent decline in European gas demand over the forecast period.
The report also forecasts the global LNG market becoming increasingly liquid and flexible, with the share of destination-free contracts accounting for just over half of total LNG volumes contracted by 2030. Long-distance piped gas trade is expected to decline by almost 55 bcm between 2024 and 2030, primarily due to lower piped gas deliveries to Europe.