The Republic of Moldova, situated geographically between Ukraine and European Union member Romania, constitutes a critical theater in the protracted geopolitical contest between Russia and the West. The parliamentary elections held on Sept. 28, 2025, attracted considerable international attention due to their potential to determine the country’s future political orientation. This op-ed examines the elections within the framework of a contest for parliamentary control between pro-Western and pro-Russian political forces, while analyzing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, public concerns and the election outcomes.
Influence of Russia-Ukraine War
International interest in Moldova intensified following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The conflict has profoundly shaped the electoral landscape. The unrecognized, Kremlin-backed Transnistria region in eastern Moldova remains a focal point of the Russia-West rivalry. Transnistria serves as a military and operational base for Russian intelligence and state structures, hosting an estimated 1,500 Russian troops and a major former Soviet ammunition depot near Cobasna village containing approximately 20,000 tons of munitions.
Since 2022, the interruption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine has severed a primary funding stream for Transnistria, prompting speculation about the potential collapse of the separatist regime. This development has placed financial pressure on a structure that has traditionally been sustained by Moscow. The Moldovan government, lacking the military capacity to enforce transit, has avoided escalation. The elections thus unfolded amid heightened geopolitical tensions, with pro-Western and pro-Russian parties vying for parliamentary dominance.
Concerns of Moldovan people
Moldovan public opinion revolves around a fundamental dilemma: integration with the EU or closer alignment with Russia. In the late 1990s, the post-Soviet national revival movement led the Romanian-speaking majority to adopt the Latin alphabet and declare Romanian the official language. This shift triggered fears among non-Romanian speakers – predominantly ethnic Russians – that Moldova might pursue reunification with Romania, a factor that contributed to the emergence of the Transnistrian separatist movement. In 1992, Transnistria unilaterally declared independence, with Russia providing military and economic support. Following the 2025 elections and President Maia Sandu’s consolidation of parliamentary power, initiatives to curb Russian influence in the region are anticipated.
The Gagauz Turks represent another significant constituency. A 2024 referendum in the Gagauz Autonomous Territorial Unit revealed strong opposition to EU membership. AVIM Analyst Bekir Caner Şafak notes that Russia openly regards Gagauzia as part of its sphere of influence. The Gagauz also oppose potential unification with Romania, positioning themselves as a balancing element within Moldova. For Türkiye, preserving the cultural values and rights of the Gagauz community remains a priority.
Journalist Deniz Berktay highlights parallels between Moldova and pre-2014 Ukraine, both caught in a geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West. While ethnic Moldovans share linguistic ties with Romania and ethnic Ukrainians with Russia, public support for unification with Romania remains limited, partly due to memories of repressive Romanian administration between 1918 and 1940. Since 2020, under Sandu’s leadership, the pro-Western Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has achieved electoral successes, amplified by Russia’s diminished regional leverage amid battlefield setbacks in Ukraine (e.g., the withdrawal from Kherson). Berktay observes that these developments have bolstered pro-Western forces and enhanced Western oversight of state institutions. Nevertheless, PAS’s victory in the Sept. 28, 2025, elections relied heavily on diaspora votes, while a significant portion of the domestic electorate retains pro-Russian inclinations. Despite its modest population and territory, Moldova’s strategic importance warrants close observation.
Public anxieties during the campaign centered on external interference and the erosion of democratic processes. The incumbent pro-Western party accused Russia of election meddling, citing voter transportation, ballot theft, bomb threats and destabilization efforts. A leader of the opposition, Our Party (PN), claimed voters were intimidated. A joint statement by France, Germany and Poland commended Moldova for conducting peaceful elections despite “unprecedented Russian interference,” including vote-buying and disinformation.
Election results, polarization
Voter turnout on Sept. 28, 2025, was 52.21%. The results underscored a strengthening pro-Western orientation. Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) secured 50.20% of the vote, emerging as the leading party. The pro-Russian “Patriotic” bloc, comprising the Socialists, Communists and “Moldova’s Future” parties, garnered 24.17%, placing second.
Other entities surpassing the electoral threshold included the “Alternativa” bloc (7.96%), the “Our” Party (6.20%) and the “Democracy at Home” Party (5.62%). In total, three parties and two blocs gained parliamentary representation.
The outcome reflects deep societal polarization. Socialist Party (PSRM) leader Igor Dodon claimed PAS had effectively lost the election and that opposition forces could form a coalition. He argued that PAS’s first-place finish was attributable to overseas votes, while domestic voters favored the opposition. This claim highlights a clear divide between diaspora and resident electorates.
Opposition forces, led by the “Patriotic” bloc, contested the results. PSRM leader Dodon and “Moldova’s Future” Chair Vasile Tarlev organized protests outside the Central Election Commission (CEC) with hundreds of supporters, alleging irregularities and vowing to withhold recognition pending review, and to pursue legal action if complaints were dismissed. CEC Chair Anjelika Karaman affirmed the election’s transparency, noting 236 recorded violations but no systemic breaches.
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk issued a joint statement congratulating Moldova on its democratic conduct and resilience at a critical juncture. The leaders accused Russia of seeking to undermine Moldovan institutions and its EU path through vote-buying and disinformation, while reaffirming Western commitment to Moldova’s European integration.
Moldova chose its future
The Moldovan parliamentary elections served as a pivotal indicator of whether the country would gravitate toward the West or remain within Russia’s orbit. The decisive victory of the pro-Western Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) demonstrates the Moldovan electorate’s determination – despite the claims of Russian disinformation and manipulation – to pursue a future rooted in peace and freedom. However, opposition claims of electoral violations and subsequent protests signal persistent political instability and polarization.
The Gagauz Turks, having expressed EU opposition in the 2024 Gagauzia referendum, together with Russia’s view of the region as part of its domain and their resistance to Romanian unification, continue to function as a moderating force in Moldovan politics. For Türkiye, safeguarding Gagauz cultural heritage and rights remains paramount. While the election results reinforce Moldova’s commitment to EU membership, Russia’s ongoing interference via Transnistria and other channels underscores the country’s enduring geopolitical vulnerability.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance, values or position of Daily Sabah. The newspaper provides space for diverse perspectives as part of its commitment to open and informed public discussion.
