Consumer confidence in October slid for a third consecutive month, hitting its lowest level since April when President Trump’s tariff announcements sent shock waves through the economy.
The latest index reading from The Conference Board showed a small 1.0 point decline on a monthly basis in October to 94.6 as consumers’ view of current business and labor conditions improved slightly. Short-term expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions, however, weakened by 2.9 points and continued to remain below a threshold “that typically signals a recession ahead,” The Conference Board said.
Confidence also diverged among consumers based on income level, another sign of a K-shaped economy.
“Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement.
Learn more: What is consumer confidence, and why does it matter?
“Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024,” Guichard added. “On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.”
Consumers were indeed more skittish about the future labor market in October, with 15.8% expecting more jobs to be available six months from now, lower than the 16.6% level seen in September.
Read more: How to financially survive a job furlough
Private data released by the payroll processor ADP Tuesday suggested the labor market may have shown signs of a “tepid recovery” in October. But that reading comes against a backdrop of layoff announcements from major companies, including Amazon and UPS.
The Conference Board’s data comes amid a virtual blackout for official metrics on the health of the US economy due to the government shutdown. Employment data for September has yet to be released after August’s weak showing, and October’s jobs data likely won’t arrive next Friday, either. While inflation data for September was released last week on a delayed schedule and proved a bit better than analysts had expected, October data has yet to be collected.
Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com.
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