Oil: Trade talks between the United States and China have resulted in a provisional agreement, providing for a reduction in customs duties and the resumption of Chinese purchases of American soybeans. Although this agreement is seen as positive for the global economy and therefore for oil demand, the market seems sceptical about its major impact on crude oil prices, especially after the United States allowed China to continue buying Russian oil despite the announced sanctions. Indeed, with regard to Russian oil, US sanctions against Russia have not caused any major disruptions to supply, as Russia continues to sell oil to key countries such as China and India. At the same time, the market’s attention is turning to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. The group is expected to announce a slight increase in production of 137,000 barrels per day in December, in line with expectations. This increase, although modest, could accentuate the persistent bearish sentiment, with a surplus expected for 2026. In terms of prices, Brent is trading down at USD 64.8, compared to USD 61.10 for WTI.
Metals: Copper prices in London – 3-month delivery – peaked at nearly $11,000 per metric tonne. The momentum remains bullish, mainly due to concerns about global supply. Signs of declining production among several major mining producers are keeping up the pressure. On the precious metals front, the price of gold fell this week, hovering around the symbolic USD 4,000 mark. Despite this recent decline, gold remains up more than 50% since 1 January, supported by strong demand from ETFs and purchases by central banks. In the short term, the Fed’s hawkish tone and reduced expectations of future rate cuts have strengthened the dollar, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
Agricultural commodities: Grains rebounded in Chicago following the announcement that China would purchase 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually for three years. At the same time, the market remains deprived of forecasts. The US Department of Agriculture did not publish its weekly export sales report due to the federal government shutdown. Wheat (December 2025 delivery) traded slightly higher at 525 cents, corn rose to 420 cents and soybeans (January 2026 delivery) jumped to 1106 cents.