Has NATO Already Lost The Drone War?

Three large drones conducted targeted surveillance over Belgium’s Kleine Brogel airbase—which stores US nuclear weapons—on the night of November 1-2, 2025, evading Belgian military jammers and police helicopter pursuit in what Defense Minister Theo Francken called “a clear command targeting Kleine Brogel.” The incident marks the latest escalation in a months-long campaign of drone incursions across NATO territory that has exposed critical vulnerabilities in European air defenses.

The brazen surveillance operation over one of Europe’s most sensitive military installations demonstrates that despite billions pledged for counter-drone systems, NATO still lacks effective capabilities to detect, track, and neutralize sophisticated unmanned aircraft.

Military Jammers Fail Against Sophisticated Drones

Belgian authorities detected three large drones flying at higher altitudes over Kleine Brogel Air Base in Limburg Province on Saturday night, according to Reuters. The base, located just 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the Netherlands border, is widely known to store American B61 nuclear gravity bombs under NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements and will house Belgium’s new F-35A Lightning II fleet starting in 2027.

Defense Minister Theo Francken confirmed on Sunday that Belgian forces deployed electronic jamming equipment in an unsuccessful attempt to disable the drones. “A drone jammer was used, but without success,” Francken said in a statement on X (formerly Twitter), adding that the countermeasures may have failed due to “distance or radio frequency issues.”

A police helicopter and ground patrol units pursued one of the drones for several kilometers heading north toward the Netherlands before losing contact with the aircraft. No arrests have been made, and the operators remain unidentified.

Pattern of Repeated Intrusions Over Belgian Military Sites

The Saturday night incident followed drone sightings at the same airbase just 24 hours earlier on October 31, when authorities also failed to intercept the unmanned aircraft. Belgian media outlet VTM Nieuws reported that drones were also observed over the nearby Leopoldsburg military area on the same night, approximately 12 miles (20 kilometers) from Kleine Brogel.

“This was not a simple overflight, but a clear command targeting Kleine Brogel,” Francken stated. “Last night, three reports were made about the appearance of larger drones flying at high altitude over Kleine Brogel.”

The Belgian Defense Minister characterized the incidents as probable espionage operations rather than accidental overflights.

“How they operate exactly, where they hover, what they examine and how long such a flight lasts: these are not accidents,” he told Belgian broadcaster VRT.

Belgium has experienced an escalating series of drone incursions at military facilities in recent months. Investigations are already underway into multiple sightings over the Marche-en-Famenne military base in southeastern Belgium and another facility at Elsenborn on the German border last month. Additional drone activity was reported at Deurne Airport and Ostend Airport in recent nights.

Belgium Proposes €500 Million Counter-Drone Defense Plan

Francken announced that his department will present a €50 million ($54 million USD) emergency counter-drone package to the Belgian Cabinet on Friday, with plans for a comprehensive €500 million ($543 million USD) long-term investment program. The immediate funding would cover standardized drone reporting systems, additional anti-drone equipment, and enhanced detection capabilities.

“This involves a standardised way of reporting a drone, but also the purchase of anti-drone systems and a whole range of detection systems,” Francken told VRT radio, adding that “the first effects of the drone plan should already be felt this month.”

Belgian government ministers are scheduled to discuss the incidents and response measures on Tuesday, November 5. Francken said he would meet with local police and Peer Mayor Steven Matheï next week to “analyze the threat and take the necessary steps to find and arrest the drone pilots.”

Russian Attribution Suspected But Not Confirmed

While Francken acknowledged that European officials suspect Russian involvement in the continent-wide drone campaign, he stopped short of direct attribution. “I cannot say who is behind this, that is currently speculation,” the minister said. “We cannot prove that Russia is behind this.”

However, Francken told VRT radio that investigators are “looking at state actors, and the state actor that poses the greatest threat at the moment is, of course, Russia, because of the war in Ukraine.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has previously pointed directly at Russia as responsible for similar incidents across Germany.

Russia has consistently denied involvement in European drone incursions, with Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin previously calling such accusations “unfounded” and claiming they reveal “a clear desire to provoke NATO countries into a direct military confrontation with Russia.”

NATO Countries on High Alert After Months of Incidents

NATO member states have been on heightened alert following a wave of drone sightings and airspace violations across Europe in recent months. The alliance has characterized the incidents as potential hybrid warfare operations designed to probe defenses, gather intelligence, and test NATO’s response capabilities.

In September, approximately 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace during attacks on Ukraine, marking the first time NATO forces shot down Russian aircraft since Moscow’s 2022 invasion began. Poland invoked NATO’s Article 4 for emergency consultations—only the eighth time the collective security provision has been triggered since 1949.

Denmark experienced seven consecutive days of drone incursions at airports and military installations in late September, prompting NATO to deploy a German warship for air defense during a European Union summit in Copenhagen. Oslo’s Gardermoen Airport and Copenhagen Airport both experienced forced closures due to drone activity.

Germany confirmed in October that military reconnaissance drones—not consumer-grade models—had systematically mapped critical infrastructure including naval shipyards, power plants, and military bases across northern Germany. Munich Airport was forced to shut down twice due to what a classified German government report identified as professional military surveillance platforms.

Norway arrested two Chinese nationals in early October after they were caught operating a drone near Bardufoss Air Base, home to F-35 fighters and a key NATO Arctic facility.

DroneXL’s Take

Belgium’s Kleine Brogel incident is the latest confirmation of what we’ve been documenting for months: Europe’s counter-drone defenses are failing against sophisticated adversaries who understand exactly how to exploit NATO’s vulnerabilities.

We’ve tracked this escalating crisis since Russian drones first violated Polish airspace in September, triggering Article 4 for only the eighth time in NATO history. We reported when Denmark faced seven consecutive days of military drone incursions that required NATO warship deployment. We covered Germany’s systematic surveillance by military reconnaissance drones mapping critical infrastructure with apparent impunity. And we detailed how Munich Airport was shut down twice by what German intelligence confirmed were professional military platforms.

The pattern is undeniable: these aren’t hobbyist quadcopters or misidentified aircraft. These are sophisticated, coordinated intelligence-gathering operations targeting NATO’s most sensitive facilities—nuclear weapons storage sites, F-35 bases, naval shipyards, and critical infrastructure. And NATO’s expensive countermeasures are proving ineffective.

Belgium’s experience with failed jammers and outpaced helicopters echoes what we’ve seen across the continent. Germany’s HP47 electronic warfare jammer proved useless against drones at the Schwesing airbase. Danish authorities couldn’t intercept drones despite deploying France and Sweden’s specialized anti-drone units. Romania’s F-16s tracked a Russian Geran-2 drone for 50 minutes inside NATO airspace but never engaged it.

The economic asymmetry is brutal: NATO is firing million-dollar missiles at drones that cost a few thousand dollars. As we noted when Norway deployed the first operational NATO drone swarm, the alliance is scrambling to adopt rapid-iteration defense models proven in Ukraine while Russia can manufacture 75,000 Shahed drones annually.

The EU’s fast-tracked “drone wall” defense system with its €140+ billion price tag won’t help Belgium right now. The initiative remains stalled by France and Germany over control disputes, even as drones fly over nuclear weapons storage facilities. Belgium’s €500 million counter-drone plan joins a growing list of national responses that may arrive too late.

The bigger concern: if adversaries can conduct systematic surveillance of NATO’s nuclear sites with this level of sophistication, how long before surveillance becomes sabotage? Russia has demonstrated willingness to conduct hybrid attacks across Europe, from attempted assassinations of defense executives to infrastructure sabotage. These reconnaissance missions may be gathering targeting packages for operations that haven’t happened yet.

For drone professionals, this crisis underscores both the incredible capabilities of modern unmanned systems and the serious security challenges they present. The same autonomous navigation and anti-jamming capabilities that make drones valuable for legitimate applications also make them formidable intelligence-gathering tools.

What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments below.