As Russia cements its broader foreign policy plans for a Greater Eurasia, the role of Belarus and North Korea will be instrumental in turning theory into supply-chain practice.
The ebb and flow of summitry over the past few months has understandably focused on the much-anticipated Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska in August, followed by the tantalising prospect of a neither-confirmed-nor-denied follow-up in Budapest.
Perhaps less theatrical but potentially as revealing has been the flurry of meetings and conferences that took place in Belarus over the last few days. Ordinarily these kinds of conferences are brushed aside as a ruse to grandstand, lob criticisms towards the West and air well-rehearsed views. And while the conference in many ways showcased just this, it also demonstrated the growing military coordination between Belarus, North Korea and Russia, and so parts of the meeting merit closer dissection.
A perhaps unintended consequence of western sanctions and political isolation from the West has been the deepening of Russia’s germinating alliances with other states, such as North Korea as well as Iran and China. These relationships have become more than the theory of strategic partnerships; they are evolving as a result of the war and will continue to take shape amid Russia’s future plans for its military reconstitution.
For President Lukashenko, playing host to the relatively large conference was an attempt to highlight Belarus’s convening power. Although a country largely internationally isolated thanks to its domestic human rights violations in 2020 and support of Russia’s invasion, a conflict where Belarus only stopped short of sending Belarusian troops to the battlefield, Lukashenko has in recent months been cultivating his own relationship with President Trump – with the apparent nonchalance of Putin – and with the potential for results if he is able to capitalise on it. Lukashenko is presenting himself to the Americans as a leader with the ear of Putin, capable of conveying political messaging on the war, as well as the slightly contradictory stance of both an independent country with its own foreign policy, but also as a state so enmeshed with Russia that a study of Belarus may lead to a deeper understanding of Russia.
On the sidelines of the Minsk conference, there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity, with the DPRK’s Foreign Minister engaged in several high-level meetings with her Belarusian and Russian counterparts, including a personal audience with Putin before travelling to Minsk, pointing to the seriousness with which Russia accords this burgeoning alliance. Separately and on a much lower level, Belarus and North Korea are establishing their own relationship, with an exchange of high-level diplomatic overtures earlier this year.
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