There’s a puzzling dynamic emerging in the American economy.

On one hand, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to set record highs and economic growth data is seemingly robust.

But on the other hand, consumer confidence has hit its lowest point in a decade, according to The University of Michigan’s monthly survey (1). Meanwhile, 42 million Americans have to settle for partial and delayed food aid benefits in November after the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program was paused due to the ongoing government shutdown (2).

So, is the U.S. economy thriving, or struggling? The answer, according to one expert, is both.

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, has described the current environment as a “K-shaped economy (3).” Put simply, high-earning households are doing so well that their growth is offsetting the decline of mid- and low-income households.

Here’s a closer look at how this K-shaped economy is skewing the data.

As Long explained to NPR, her data shows that the top 20% — the high-earning American households — are thriving because they have seen immense gains in their stock portfolios and home values in recent years. And as consumers start to feel wealthier due to an increase in the value of their assets, their spending tends to increase.

This spending pattern based on asset appreciation is sometimes referred to as the “wealth effect (4).”

The impact of this is clearly visible in recent consumption data. In the second quarter of 2025, Americans in the top 10% of income earners were responsible for nearly half (49.2%) of all consumption across the country, according to Moody’s Analytics (5).

“The top 20% of American earners are doing pretty well,” said Long. “The stock market’s up. Their home values have gone way up in the last few years. They are not that concerned about these tariffs because they have the cash on hand to be able to absorb any price increases.”

But most ordinary American households don’t have multimillion-dollar properties or stock portfolios they can simply tap into in order to fund their lifestyle. With this in mind, Long argues these households are bearing much of the brunt of the ongoing trade war and its impact on the cost of living in the U.S.

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