Implementation takes centre stage at Brazil’s COP

COP30 opens on Monday in the heart of the Amazon, ten years after the Paris Agreement and with governments under pressure to deliver rather than make new promises.

The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) runs from 10 to 21 November in Belém, Brazil.

“The era of fine speeches and good intentions is over. Brazil’s COP30 will be about action,” wrote Lula da Silva, president of the host country, on the eve of the summit.

The Brazilian presidency insists this year’s gathering is about implementation, focused less on negotiating new frameworks and more on delivering those already agreed.

Talks will revolve around putting the existing targets into practice: tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, mobilising €1.1 trillion a year in climate finance for developing countries by 2035, and aligning national emissions plans with the 1.5°C pathway. The role of technology, including artificial intelligence, in accelerating these goals will also feature on the agenda.

Let’s have a look at what is at stake in Belém. The two-week summit will test whether countries can deliver on the main pillars of the Paris Agreement’s next phase: turning the €1.1 trillion finance roadmap into action, finalising indicators to measure adaptation progress, agreeing on a just-transition work plan, and submitting credible 2035 emission-reduction targets.

Finance first: the Baku–Belém Roadmap

At COP29 in Baku last year, countries adopted a New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance: at least $300 billion (€260 billion) a year by 2035 for developing countries, with a broader aim of mobilising $1.3 trillion (€1.1 trillion) annually. 

The Baku-Belém Roadmap, prepared by the Azerbaijani and Brazilian presidencies and released on 5 November, sets out how that could be achieved through higher grant finance, multilateral-bank reform and more private finance. 

“This roadmap is not the transformative document that was needed, but if Brazil’s diplomacy is fully leveraged, it could mark the start of a pathway toward improving the quality and impact of climate finance in the years ahead,” said Sandra Guzmán, director-general of the Green Finance for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC) in a press statement. 

While it covers useful follow-up steps on adaptation and loss-and-damage funding, she said, it “largely repeats existing models” and “fails to recognise the urgent reforms needed in the financial system”. 

Building under construction in Parque da Cidade in Belém, built to host the COP30 © Photo credit: Shutterstock

While it covers useful follow-up steps on adaptation and loss-and-damage funding, she said, it “largely repeats existing models” and “fails to recognise the urgent reforms needed in the financial system”. 

The plan has also drawn some praise. “This offers a sober assessment. The challenges to scaling up to the $1.3 trillion goal are significant, but the roadmap presents a clear set of actions that can get us there,” said Joe Thwaites, senior advocate at the Natural Resources Defense Council think tank.

Finance discussions in Belém are likely to revolve around whether governments take concrete steps to act on the roadmap’s proposals and translate them into measurable contributions and timelines.

New 2035 climate plans

Belém is also a major checkpoint for the 2035 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that countries must submit under the Paris Agreement’s “ratchet” mechanism. These new plans are meant to bridge the gap between the 2030 targets already in force and the long-term goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century with the goal of keeping tha global temperature rise “well below” 2°C.

The deadline to submit these updated NDCs was in February, but several countries have yet to do so. The European Union (and its member states, including Luxembourg) only submitted its updated NDCs on 5 November.

Even the enhanced ambitions may not be enough. The UN’s Emissions Gap Report, released on 4 November, warns that even with full implementation of existing NDCs, the world is on track to warm by 2.6–2.8°C, far above the 1.5°C goal, the aspirational target under the Paris Agreement. 

Brazil is calling on laggards to submit “ambitious NDCs and to implement them effectively.”

EU: updated NDC now filed

The EU and its member states in their NDCs reiterate the target of at least 55% net greenhouse-gas cuts by 2030 compared with 1990 and a 90% reduction by 2040.

But they leave an intermediary 2035 target undefined, offering a reduction range of 66.25–72.5%. The EU also allows the use of high-quality international credits after 2030, subject to EU law and Paris rules, including the controversial carbon credits system in its pathway to achieving its climate objectives.

Luxembourg criticised the watering down, saying it regrets “that the finally adopted NDC contains a range for the indicative 2035 target… only the upper end of this range, namely 72.5%, could be considered credible.”

Luxembourg Environment Minister Serge Wilmes © Photo credit: Laurent Sturm

Luxembourg criticised the watering down, saying it regrets “that the finally adopted NDC contains a range for the indicative 2035 target… only the upper end of this range, namely 72.5%, could be considered credible.”

At COP30, the EU is likely to push for three priorities: firming up the Baku–Belém finance roadmap with clearer rules for mobilising public and private capital; securing agreement on a global framework for adaptation indicators; and advancing a commitment to phase out unabated fossil fuels this decade. 

Adaptation and just transition

Nearly a decade after the Global Goal on Adaptation was first agreed, negotiators are close to finalising a concise list of indicators to track resilience progress – covering infrastructure, health, water, agriculture and early-warning systems. Clarifying how these link to finance is seen as one of COP30’s most tangible deliverables.

Talks on the Just Transition Work Programme will attempt to bridge differences between those pushing a broad approach, addressing jobs, social protection and energy access, and those favouring a narrower, technical scope.

Luxembourg’s role

Luxembourg will seek to highlight its record as a climate-finance hub and to reinforce its credibility as an advocate for a just transition. For the first time, it will host a national pavilion in the COP Blue Zone, organised with the Luxembourg Sustainable Finance Initiative and other partners, to showcase projects in sustainable finance and social inclusion.

The pavilion website says Luxembourg wants to use COP30 to underline its “leadership in science-based climate action, finance for nature and multilateral cooperation”, and to deepen partnerships with other countries, particularly those vulnerable to climate impacts.

The government has committed €200 million for 2021–2025 and €320 million for 2026–2030 in international climate finance, among the highest contributions per capita worldwide. In Brussels and Luxembourg, Environment Minister Serge Wilmes has consistently backed an EU target of a 90% cut in emissions by 2040, arguing that early decisions and investments are crucial to avoid much higher future costs.

Environmental group Mouvement Écologique said Luxembourg must move faster on decarbonising housing and industrial manufacturing. “Luxembourg must continue on its pathway of decarbonising its economy through effective measures to transform the system. This is especially important in housing and industrial manufacturing sectors, which have been lagging behind on their objectives,” the group told The Luxembourg Times ahead of COP30.

Gauthier Hansel © Photo credit: Greenpeace Luxembourg

Environmental group Mouvement Écologique said Luxembourg must move faster on decarbonising housing and industrial manufacturing. “Luxembourg must continue on its pathway of decarbonising its economy through effective measures to transform the system. This is especially important in housing and industrial manufacturing sectors, which have been lagging behind on their objectives,” the group told The Luxembourg Times ahead of COP30.

Greenpeace Luxembourg called on the government to strengthen its anti deforestation agenda. “At home, Luxembourg must ensure coherence between its climate commitments and EU policies by defending an ambitious anti-deforestation regulation, opposing the EU-Mercosur trade deal that would accelerate Amazon destruction, and resisting deregulatory moves that undermine environmental and corporate accountability,” said Gauthier Hansel, campaigner at Greenpeace Luxembourg, in an email to The Luxembourg Times.