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President Donald Trump has promised Americans that they’ll receive a $2,000 check from revenue generated by his controversial tariffs — but financial experts say the numbers just don’t add up.
“A dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” Trump posted Sunday on his Truth Social platform, while touting his tariff plan.
The president did not elaborate on his plan, including what the income limits might be, and whether children would receive payments. But sparse details aside, budget experts and economists expressed doubt over the plan’s plausibility.
“The numbers just don’t check out,” said Erika York, vice president of federal tax policy at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.
Trump’s tariffs have funneled $195 billion into government’s coffers – up 153 percent from $77 billion in 2024, according to the Associated Press. Despite the gains, the levies have hardly made a dent in the federal budget deficit, which sits at a staggering $1.8 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year.
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Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 check per person has raised the eyebrows of economists, who say the math for his plan doesn’t add up (Getty)
Budget experts also say Trump’s plan doesn’t quite map out. John Ricco, an analyst with the Budget Lab at Yale University, says Trump’s tariffs will bring in $200 billion to $300 billion a year. However, if Trump were to cut all Americans, including children, a $2,000 check, it would cost $600 billion, Ricco explained.
“It’s clear that the revenue coming in would not be adequate,” he added.
And if checks were only given to adults, the math still doesn’t add up. According to the latest Census Bureau data, there are 258.3 million people over age 18 in the U.S., meaning tariff checks would total more than $516 billion.
Ricco also noted that Trump couldn’t just pay the sum on his own, but would require Congressional approval first.
Trump’s tariffs are largely hurting Americans, as U.S. importers pass along the cost of the levy to customers by raising their prices, according to economists.
The dividend plan “misses the mark,” the Tax Foundation’s York added. “If the goal is relief for Americans, just get rid of the tariffs.”
The Supreme Court last week heard arguments in a challenge to Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Three lower courts have already ruled that his use of emergency powers to impose the levies was illegal.
If the higher court also strikes down the tariffs, the Trump administration may be refunding money to importers who were tariffed, instead of sending Americans checks. The justices appeared skeptical of Trump’s plan – much to his ire.
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When Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, was asked about Trump’s proposal for checks on a Sunday politics show, he equivocated, saying that the ‘$2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms, lots of ways’ (AP)
“So, let’s get this straight??? The President of the United States is allowed (and fully approved by Congress!) to stop ALL TRADE with a Foreign Country (Which is far more onerous than a Tariff!), and LICENSE a Foreign Country, but is not allowed to put a simple Tariff on a Foreign Country, even for purposes of NATIONAL SECURITY,” the president also wrote on Truth Social Sunday morning.
“That is NOT what our great Founders had in mind! The whole thing is ridiculous! Other Countries can Tariff us, but we can’t Tariff them??? It is their DREAM!!! Businesses are pouring into the USA ONLY BECAUSE OF TARIFFS. HAS THE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT NOT BEEN TOLD THIS??? WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON???” he continued.
When Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, was asked about Trump’s proposal for checks on a Sunday politics show, he equivocated, saying that the “$2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms, lots of ways.”
“It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda,” Bessent told ABC News’ This Week . “You know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security. Deductibility of auto loans.”
The Trump administration has not laid out plans for the proposed dividend. During his first term, the president signed two stimulus checks proposals into law.
The first gave $1,200 to each person who filed their taxes and $500 per child, after the country locked down in March 2020 during the Covid pandemic. The second stimulus checks were issued in December of that same year, with $600 given to each tax filer and an additional $600 allocated for each of their children.
It was not immediately clear if Trump’s latest check would function the same way, with his first two rounds being available to individuals earning up to $75,000 per year and couples who make a collective $150,000.
With reporting by the Associated Press.