Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday after OPEC projected that global oil supply will marginally outpace demand in 2026
Oil prices continued to retreat on Thursday, slipping further after a U.S. report showed a rise in crude inventories, a sign that supply remains ample amid current fuel demand conditions.
As of 5:05 GMT, Brent crude futures inched down 2 cents, or 0.03 percent, to $62.69 a barrel, following a sharp 3.8 percent drop in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also extended losses, easing 6 cents, or 0.10 percent, to $58.43 a barrel after a 4.2 percent fall on Wednesday.
Global oil supply to marginally outpace demand in 2026
Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projected that global oil supply will marginally outpace demand in 2026, a reversal from the group’s earlier forecasts of a supply shortfall.
Oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.30 million barrels per day (mb/d) to reach 105.14 mb/d in 2025 and further increase by 1.38 mb/d to 106.52 mb/d in 2026. OPEC also highlighted that global oil inventories have been rising substantially this year, with stock builds totaling approximately 304 million barrels between January and September 2025.
OPEC’s latest projection of a modest surplus now aligns with the International Energy Agency’s outlook, though the IEA anticipates a considerably larger oversupply.
The oil producer group has been gradually boosting output throughout the year and intends to raise production again in December. While OPEC has indicated plans to pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026, its recent production ramp-ups have already stirred market unease about a potential supply glut next year.
Global oil inventories are set to expand through 2026
Further adding pressure to oil markets, market sources, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7. The data also showed declines in gasoline and distillate stockpiles.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, projected that U.S. oil production will hit a higher record this year than previously anticipated. The agency also warned that global oil inventories are set to expand through 2026, as output continues to outpace demand for petroleum fuels, a trend likely to weigh further on oil prices.
Looking ahead, some analysts expect oil prices to hover around current levels, reflecting a market increasingly shaped by stronger supply and muted demand growth.