Charlie Cummings previews Friday’s UEFA World Cup Qualifying match between Luxembourg and Germany.

Germany finds itself with more of a fight on its hands than it expected for Group A of the UEFA World Cup Qualification round. Their 2-0 loss to Slovakia to kick off the qualifying group put them behind the 8-ball, and they’ve had to fight back ever since. With two games left to play, they’re tied with Slovakia for the top spot and lead on goal differential.

Set for a winner-take-all rematch between the two in the final group stage match, the Germans need a win against Luxembourg to control their World Cup qualifying destiny.

The odds are in Germany’s favor. The Germans are a -1400 favorite to win and +1200 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Luxembourg is at +2500. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this contest.

Luxembourg vs. Germany prediction, pick

The German performance has been shaky through the group stage. After losing to Slovakia, they won their matches against Northern Ireland and Luxembourg by a combined 7-1 margin. But their second win over the Northern Irish was a shaky 1-0 affair, and they could have dropped points. But a win is a win, and they can control their fate with another one.

For a convincing performance, they need to build from the back line. Their wide back duo of Joshua Kimmich and David Raum has been excellent, contributing to five of their eight goals. The center halves have also looked strong. However, they need more from their attack. Germany’s youngsters in the front five — Karim Adeyemi, Florian Wirtz, and Nick Woltemade — have combined for only three goal involvements. The objective for the last two group stage games is to qualify automatically, but they need to build some chemistry in attack.

If Luxembourg has hope, it’ll come from the midfield. The middle four of their 4-4-2 alignment have posted average match ratings of 6.6 or higher, the four highest marks on the team. They need to control the middle of the field by preventing Germany’s wide backs from pushing the ball upfield and giving good service to the strike pairing.

However, I’m not confident that will happen. In their first matchup, an early red card led to a 31-1 shot margin in favor of Germany, and they won the expected goals (xG) battle 3.85 to 0.01. Unless Luxembourg can hold Germany to a scoreless draw, I don’t see a way for points here.

Best Bet: Germany Over 2.5 Goals and Luxembourg Under 0.5 Goals SGP (+110)