The Moldova national team, one of the weakest sides in the current European qualification for the 2026 World Cup, unexpectedly still has a chance to reach the play-offs — thanks to results in the Nations League.
For Moldova to receive the coveted play-off spot through the Nations League, only one condition is needed — Romania must finish second in its qualifying group. And this looks like a quite realistic scenario.
Even San Marino still has minimal chances. For the team to make a sensational play-off appearance, both Romania and Sweden must finish second in their respective groups. However, Sweden’s current situation is far from ideal, making this extremely difficult.
At the same time, neither Romania nor Sweden feels additional pressure: both national teams have already secured a Nations League path to the play-offs. Their only motivation to finish qualification without slip-ups is the opportunity to get a more favorable opponent in the play-offs — which could be Moldova.
Already guaranteed to reach the play-offs — either through the groups or through the Nations League — are the top teams of the Nations League:
Wales, Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, and Northern Ireland.
Recall that four of the best-ranked Nations League teams that failed to qualify through the group stage receive play-off spots.
Meanwhile, Moldova — despite having only 1 point, last place in Group I, and a goal difference of –24 — is still in the game. Thanks to the reformed qualification system, the Nations League gives a chance even to such outsiders — and anything can happen in the play-offs.
The key match is Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina, taking place today, November 15. It will largely determine whether Romania can help Moldova keep its unique chance of reaching the 2026 World Cup qualification play-offs. Sweden plays Switzerland today as well.
Nations League ranking:
Since Wales and North Macedonia are in the same group, one of these teams can be disregarded.
