This year’s growth has so far been higher than expected, says the EU Commission, which sees growth continuing.
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The economy in the EU is expected to grow by 1.4 percent both this year and next year. In 2027, a growth of 1.5 percent is expected.
This is stated in the EU Commission’s autumn forecast, which was published on Monday.
Thus, it appears that growth will end up being slightly higher this year than the Commission expected in its spring forecast in May.
Here, the expectation was that growth in the EU’s total GDP would land at 1.1 percent this year. The expectation for 2026, on the other hand, has been downgraded by 0.1 percentage points.
In a press release from the Commission, it is stated that growth in the first three quarters of the year has been better than expected.
Initially, growth was primarily driven by rising exports, as there was an expectation that tariff rates would increase, it is stated.
But growth continued into the third quarter, and the Commission expects it to continue further.
– Going forward, economic activity is expected to continue to rise at a moderate pace during the forecast period, even though there is a challenging external environment, writes the Commission.
GDP, gross domestic product, is a measure of the size of a country’s or region’s economy. Increases or decreases indicate whether the economy is growing or shrinking.
In 2024, GDP growth in the EU ended at 1.0 percent.
Allan Sørensen, who is chief economist at Dansk Industri, notes that growth has picked up a bit in pace.
– After a couple of very lean growth years, growth has picked up a bit. The European economy will experience progress in the coming years, but it is not a pace that impresses, he writes in a comment.
But there is a significant difference among European countries when it comes to growth prospects.
The largest economy, the German one, is expected to grow by 0.2 percent this year and is thus close to stagnation.
Growth of less than one percent is also predicted for France and Italy this year.
Conversely, growth of over three percent is seen in both Croatia and Poland. Spain is also experiencing economic momentum with an expected growth of 2.9 percent this year.
– From a Danish export perspective, it is unfortunate that the Germans are struggling with growth. On the other hand, we can be pleased that the Swedes have gotten their growth going, writes Allan Sørensen.
In Sweden, growth of 1.5 percent this year is expected to increase to 2.6 percent next year.
The EU Commission also expects progress in the economy in Denmark with a growth of 2.0 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year.