Asia market update: Markets wait for Nvidia Q3 tomorrow; CN threatens trade war over JP seafood again; JP yield rise halted by healthy 20-yr auction.

General trend and developments

– Asian bourses edged lower and markets were quiet overall as the looming shadow of Nvidia’s Q3 earnings

to be revealed after the US close (Wed US time, ~16:20pm ET).

– After at last being resolved in May of this year, when the nearly two year-long ban on Japanese seafood imports into China was suspended, today the Chinese govt once again banned the importation of Japanese seafood, citing the need for monitoring of Fukushima nuclear plant’s treated water release – avoiding any mention of the recent diplomatic spat over Taiwan. The Taiwan issue threatens to turn into a trade dispute, at least from the China side.

– Ahead of Fri 21st meeting of Japan PM Takaichi’s cabinet to approve Japan’s new economic stimulus package, further press reports that the size will be larger than originally expected at >¥20T, with the supplementary budget component expected to be ~¥17T (Reports earlier this week that LDP’s Nakamura said to have suggested ¥25T extra budget to PM Takaichi. Estimates for early November were only for ~¥17T ).

– Japan’s yield curve continued to rise, (JPY also up +0.2%) particularly at the long-end. 30-year JGB yield rose by 3bps to 3.340%, even as the OIS chances overnight of a December BOJ rate hike fell to 28% from 34% day before. 40-year JGBs also +4bps.

– Then offering some respite, Japan’s 20-year JGB auction for November saw decent demand, with JP-year yields paring back their earlier rise. The 20-yr bid-to-cover inline with the 12-month average, well over 3X (although the tail was the widest since the volatility of May, 2025)

– Australia Q3 wage price index data was inline, noting the largest industry contributor to quarterly wages growth was healthcare and social assistance (+1.5%).

– Malaysian trade balance +59% y/y, although US exports for month of Oct fell but compensated by a larger rise in exports to China.
– US equity FUTs -0.2% during Asian trading

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted releases, using Asian time zone)

– Wed Nov 19th UK Oct CPI, ID Rate Decision, (Wed night US FOMC Minutes).

– Thu Nov 20th CN Nov LPR rates, JP BOJ’s Koeda, (Thu night US Sept Jobs – delayed release).

– Fri Nov 21st JP Oct CPI, JP Oct Trade Balance (delayed from Wed, Nov 19th), Nov Global Flash PMIs,.

Holidays in Asia this week

– No holidays in Asia this week.

Headlines/economic dataAustralia/New Zealand

– ASX 200 opens +0.2% at 8,482.

– Australia Q3 wage price index Q/Q: 0.8% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.4%E.

– Australia Oct Westpac Leading Index M/M: +0.11% v -0.01% prior.

– Australia sells A$1.0B vs. A$1.0B indicated in 2.75% Jun 2035 bonds; Avg Yield: 4.414% v 4.1047% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.65x v 2.91x prior.

– New Zealand Q3 PPI Output: 0.6% v 0.6% prior: Input Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.6% prior.

China/Hong Kong

– Hang Seng opens flat at 25,954; Shanghai Composite opens -0.1% at 3,937.

– China Govt reissues notice to halt Japanese seafood imports – Japan press.

– China MOF sells 5-year and 7-year bonds.

– China Premier Li at meeting with Russia Pres Putin: China determined to cooperate with Russia – China state media.

– China President Xi: Urges ‘stronger’ coordination between party leadership and the public – comments on meeting related to Law and Governance [overnight update].

– Hong Kong Oct Unemployment Rate: 3.8% v 4.0%e [overnight update].

– (HK) Macau Leader Sam Hou Fai: Delivers Macau 2026 policy address [overnight update].

– China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.0872 v 7.0856 prior [weakest since Nov 5th].

– China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY311B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY115B v injects CNY3.7B prior.

Japan

– Nikkei 225 opens +0.3% at 48,902.

– Japan Sept Core Machine Orders M/M: 4.2% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: 11.6% v 4.7%e.

– Follow up: Japan’s total economic stimulus package said to be >¥20T – Japan press.

Note for Japan’s October 2025 Trade Balance data: Japan MOF has announced that Japan’s October trade data release due today will be postponed to Friday, Nov 21st.

– According to panelist [Guoshi Kataoka] said to be advising Japan PM, BOJ is not likely to raise rates before Mar 2026 – US financial press.

– Reportedly China diplomats dissatisfied with result of meeting with Japan counterparts – press cites China diplomat [overnight update].

– MUFG: Sees room for more yen losses into next year, given that it expects the common currency to continue to outperform in the coming months [overnight update].

Korea

– Kospi opens +0.3% at 3,966.

– South Korea Q3 Short-term External Debt : $161.6B v $167.1B prior.

– Goldman Sachs said the selloff in South Korea Won (KRW) rates looks ‘overdone’, revised forecast for Bank of Korea rate cut to Q1 2026 – US financial press.

Other Asia

– Former Singapore Central Bank (MAS) Gov Menon: Public debt worries me a lot.

North America

– (US) Trump Admin said to be working on new 28-point plan with Russia to end Ukraine war – Axios.

– (SA) US announces MOU with Saudi Arabia on nuclear cooperation and critical minerals framework.

– (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Can safely say that he will not be the Fed’s Chair; Confirms that Trump will announce next Chair likely before Christmas; Trump will meet with three Fed Chair candidates post-Thanksgiving.

– (CL) Chile Q3 GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.8%e.

– (US) ADP Preliminary employment change for 4-weeks ending Nov 1ST: -2.5K V -14.3K PRIOR.

– (US) Pres. Trump: The only healthcare i will support or approve is sending the money directly back to the people, with nothing going to the big, fat, rich insurance companies, who have made $trillions, and ripped off america long enough. – Truth Social post (in line with previous comments).

– (US) Nov NAHB housing market index: 38 V 37E.

– (US) Aug final Durable Goods orders: 2.9% V 2.9%E; durables (ex-transportation): 0.3% V 0.4%E.

– (US) Pres Trump: Think already know my choice for Fed Chair; Will sit down with Fed Chair candidates soon.

– (SA) US and Saudi govts said planning multi-billion dollar investments in US AI infrastructure, civil nuclear energy and defense cooperation as part of previously promised $600B investment commitment by Saudi Arabia – press cites US official.

– (SA) US Pres Trump: Working on negotiating chip export licenses to Saudi Arabia: Reiterates that Saudi to invest $600B in US, that number could go up (Saudi Crown Prince MBS puts investment up to $1T).

Europe

– (CH) Swiss top trade negotiator Artieda: Switzerland relieved to reach trade deal with US.

– (RU) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Russia to use similar measure if EU seizes assets.

– (HU) Hungary central bank (MNB) leaves base rate unchanged at 6.50%; as expected.

– (UK) BOE’s Pill (chief economist): Underlying dynamics are not as strong as headline CPI; Gov Bailey is between two broad camps in MPC.

– (DE) Germany Chancellor Merz: We’re experiencing dependence on the US and China, and these dependencies are being used for power politics.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

– Nikkei 225 -0.1%, ASX 200 -0.2%; Hang Seng -0.5%; Shanghai Composite -0.1%; Kospi -0.6%.

– Equity S&P500 Futures -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.2%; DAX -0.2%; FTSE100 -0.2%.

– EUR 1.1572-1.115.86; JPY 155.22-155.59; AUD 0.6476-0.6512; NZD 0.5628–5662.

– Gold +0.5% at $4,085/oz; BTC +0.9% at $91.300; Crude Oil -0.2% at $60.52bbl; Copper +0.1% at $4.9755/lb.