Apple’s iPhone 17 is expected to sell well over the holidays in the United States (Hector RETAMAL)
Americans are expected to spend a record amount over the holiday season, despite lingering worries in the world’s biggest economy about stubborn inflation, tariffs and the knock-on effects of the government shutdown.
“Consumers remain pretty concerned about inflation and, there’s no doubt, about where prices are going,” Mark Mathews, chief economist at the National Retail Federation (NRF), told reporters.
For Mathews, the last time consumer confidence was so low — apart from the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic — dates back to the early 1980s.
But, he added, “over the past few years, we’ve seen consumers spend irrespective of how they’re feeling about things.”
The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales — from November 1 to December 31 — to top $1 trillion for the first time, with growth of 3.7-4.2 percent as compared with last year.
The record-setting 43-day government shutdown, which left hundreds of thousands of federal workers furloughed and without a paycheck, triggered a decline in demand and in revenue for the private sector, but that situation is expected to quickly be reversed.
President Donald Trump’s sweeping on-off tariffs however could affect demand for certain products, although experts say competition should temper the effects of tariffs on consumers’ wallets.
“We’re seeing a deliberate and aggressive approach to avoid passing price increases onto the consumers,” said NRF president Matt Shay.
Competition, especially in online deals, should help avert a massive hike in prices.
For buyers, competitive prices and free delivery are two key factors, Vivek Pandya, an analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, told AFP.
The share of sales made online should increase this holiday season to $253.4 billion dollars, up 5.3 percent over last year, according to Adobe Analytics.
A record $5 billion is expected to be spent per day over the 10 days that begins on “Black Friday” and runs through “Cyber Week.”
– ‘Restraint’ –
For Pandya, a 5.3 percent increase in online sales is “actually pretty good” given the variables and challenges in the US economy.
He highlighted that sales in fact were up from October, when Amazon holds its major Prime Day sales.
But the big day will certainly be Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, which is the traditional launch of the holiday shopping season — and also when the best deals are to be had.
That is followed by Cyber Monday, when online shopping takes center stage, especially on electronics and other tech.