Last Updated:November 26, 2025, 10:12 IST
JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva wrote that even though global oil demand has repeatedly outperformed bearish forecasts, supply has expanded even faster.
According to JPMorgan’s models, Brent crude could slip below $60 in 2026.
Oil prices may be heading into a far rougher stretch over the next two years as JPMorgan analysts warned that Brent crude could plunge into the low $30-per-barrel range by the end of 2027 if current supply trends persist. Despite stubborn geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production cuts, crude has fallen 15% this year and the bank’s analysts said the market is setting up a classic Economics 101 imbalance: too much supply and not enough demand to absorb it.
Why Does JPMorgan Expect Oil Prices To Collapse?
JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva wrote that even though global oil demand has repeatedly outperformed bearish forecasts, supply has expanded even faster- more than twice as fast, in fact- with most of the growth coming from the Americas.
Natasha Kaneva warned that the pattern will intensify. Oil supply, she said, is expected to grow at three times the pace of demand this year and again in 2026, creating a structural surplus that will keep prices under pressure.
How Low Could Oil Prices Go?
According to JPMorgan’s models, Brent crude could slip below $60 in 2026, fall into the low $50s by late 2026 and slide further to an average of $42 in 2027. By the end of that year, Natasha Kaneva said, prices could sink into the $30s. From today’s level of around $63.50, that represents a potential 50% decline.
Who’s Driving Supply Glut?
The bulk of new supply is expected to come from non-OPEC+ producers, led by the United States, which remains on track for record output. JPMorgan said the expected surplus may reach 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026, easing only slightly to 2.7 million in 2027. The analysts added that meaningful government intervention seems unlikely. With US President Donald Trump’s pro-drilling stance, a policy-driven slowdown in output “is not anticipated.”
Can The Market Self-Correct?
Natasha Kaneva acknowledged that such a steep price plunge may not fully materialize because markets tend to adjust but she said most of the burden of rebalancing will fall on supply, not demand. Producers may eventually start cutting output if prices drop deeply enough but until then, the surplus is likely to keep weighing on crude.
Delhi, India, India
November 26, 2025, 10:12 IST
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