By Sing Yee Ong (Bloomberg) — Seaborne shipments of liquefied natural gas to China in November are set to drop for a 13th straight month on an annual basis, extending a slump in purchases as domestic output and piped imports remain strong. 

Deliveries are expected to be around 5.81 million tons, according to Kpler, an analytics firm that tracks shipping data to make forecasts. That’s about 5.5% lower than the same month last year, according to Chinese customs data.

China’s LNG demand has been soft this year, with buyers shying away from expensive seaborne cargoes of the super-chilled fuel in favor of cheaper piped gas from Russia and Central Asia. Domestic production has also been robust.

There will likely be no urgent need for China to dip into the spot market even as winter sets in. Early forecasts show normal to mild temperatures across the country, which has already secured the heating fuel it will need for the next few months via long-term contracts. 

China was the world’s top importer of the fuel last year, and sluggish demand is raising concerns about a global glut later in the decade as new projects come online in several countries. Even if lower prices entice Chinese importers, the country is still unlikely to absorb all the new LNG and an oversupply would persist in the coming years, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

More News:

Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand is seeking to purchase an LNG cargo on a DES basis for Jan. 28-30 delivery to Thailand

Indian Oil Corp. is seeking to purchase an LNG shipment on a DES basis for Jan. 11 delivery to the Dahej terminal

QatarEnergy Trading sold an LNG cargo on a DES basis to BP for Jan. 14-16 delivery to Northeast Asia, according to traders monitoring the S&P Global Platts market-on-close platform

Woodside Energy Group Ltd. will work with the Timor-Leste government to study the potential of a new liquefied natural gas hub in the resource-rich Southeast Asian country

Spot freight rates extended a surge as increasing exports from North America tied up more vessels

Costs to hire a tanker for a journey in the Atlantic Ocean jumped to $150,000 per day, the highest since Dec. 2023, according to data from Spark Commodities

Drivers: 

China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 209k tons on Nov. 23, ~2.3% lower than a year ago, according to ship-tracking data

European gas storage levels were ~79% full on Nov. 22, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~89%

Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 245k tons/day on Nov. 22, 54% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data

Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~17.8 bcf/day on Nov. 24, +0.4% w/w: BNEF

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Buy tender:

CompanyCargoesPortDeliveryBids DueGail2 DES cargoesDabholJan. and Feb.Nov. 25Indian Oil1 DES cargoDahejJan. 11Nov. 25EGAT1 DES cargoThailandJan. 28-30Nov. 26Botas4 cargoesTurkeyJan., Feb. and March 

Sell tender:

CompanyCargoesPortDeliveryBids DueGail2 FOB cargoesLoading from USJan. 27, March 10Nov. 25Oman LNG4 DES cargoesAsiaJan.-MarchNov. 25Angola LNG1 DES cargoVarious locationsDec.Nov. 26, valid till the next day

Vessel Rates:Pacific spot earnings for a 174k cubic-meter vessel were at $83,000 on Monday, up 5.4% from the previous session, according to data from Spark Commodities, based on assessments from LNG shipbrokersAtlantic earnings were at $150,000, up ~15% from the previous sessionNOTE: Spark values calculated on a round-trip basis, including hire, ballast bonus and lump sum estimates

Prices:Japan-Korea Marker futures on Nymex for January delivery -1.9% to $11.250/mmbtu on MondayFebruary contract -2.1% to $10.735Dutch TTF futures for December delivery -1.4% to $10.042 on MondayJanuary contract -1.4% to $10.095

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