One big economic focus for 2026 will be ‘terminal’ interest rates – the point at which central bankers end their easing cycles. The question remains an open one for the UK and the US, but the European Central Bank (ECB) may already be at this point. It last cut in June, and next week’s unemployment and preliminary inflation data are expected to support its decision to maintain the base rate at 2 per cent.
Eurozone price growth dropped back from 2.2 per cent to 2.1 per cent last month, and a similar level is expected in November’s reading next Tuesday. The unemployment rate remains very close to this summer’s record low of 6.2 per cent.
There is still some interest in the ECB meeting on 18 December: rate-setters already expect inflation to fall below target next year; a further lowering of projections would suggest its cutting cycle continues into 2026. After all, growth remains weak: a preliminary Q3 GDP estimate, due to be confirmed next Friday, put the increase at 0.2 per cent.
China: Manufacturing PMI
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI
UK: Consumer credit, M4 money supply, mortgage approvals
US: Construction spending, manufacturing PMI
Japan: Consumer confidence
Eurozone: CPI inflation (preliminary), unemployment
UK: BRC shop price index
China: Services PMI
Eurozone: Composite and services PMIs, producer price index
Japan: Services PMI
UK: Composite and services PMIs
US: Composite and services PMIs
Eurozone: Retail sales
UK: Construction PMI
Eurozone: Q3 GDP
UK: Halifax house price index
US: Consumer credit, Michigan consumer sentiment index (preliminary)