J.D. Vance is being heavily tipped to win the Republican nomination for the 2028 U.S. presidential election; one prominent political analyst, for example, says the vice-president “clearly starts in the pole position” for the GOP nod.
However, it remains unclear whether the current president, Donald Trump, will attempt to earn a third stint in the White House, despite the two-term limit the U.S. constitution seeks to impose on American commanders-in-chief.
Vance the “most likely” Trump heir
A former Trump opponent who once compared the president to Hitler, Vance has become a leading “Make America Great Again” loyalist – a man Trump has described as his most probable successor as the face of the MAGA movement.
Speaking in August, Trump told reporters that he could see Vance and Marco Rubio, the U.S.’s secretary of state, teaming up on the GOP’s 2028 presidential ticket.
“Well, I think most likely [Vance is the MAGA heir-apparent],” the president said during an event in Washington D.C. “In all fairness, he’s the vice-president, and I think Marco is also somebody that maybe would get together with J.D. in some form,” Trump told Fox News’ Peter Doocy.
“I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here. So it’s too early, obviously, to talk about it, but certainly he’s doing a great job. And he would be probably favored at this point.”
Vance the favorite – but watch out for Rubio?
In a recent look-ahead to the 2028 election, CNN analyst Eric Bradner agreed that Vance is the evident frontrunner – but pointed to Rubio as a major potential threat to the vice-president’s hopes of securing the Republican nomination.
“[Vance] clearly starts in the pole position,” Bradner said. “But I was a little surprised during a recent visit to Iowa how frequently the name of Secretary of State Marco Rubio came up, often in the same breath as J.D. Vance.”
Bradner added: “There’s interest in Rubio in part because he has run for president before, unlike Vance.”
Rubio stood against Trump for the Republican nomination in 2016, in the months before the real-estate mogul-turned-politician won his first term in the White House. Rubio finished third in the GOP race, behind Trump and Senator Ted Cruz.
The secretary of state has been non-committal about his intentions for 2028. In a July interview with Fox, he chose to focus on Vance’s credentials, declaring that the 41-year-old would make a “great nominee”. “I hope he intends to do it,” Rubio said.
What do the odds and polls say?
Among bookmakers, Vance comfortably leads the betting ahead of Rubio, per betting information compiled by Oddschecker. In a recent YouGov poll, meanwhile, 44% of Republican-leaning respondents named the vice-president as their ideal presidential candidate.
The survey placed Vance well clear of Rubio (4%), Cruz (2%) and other GOP figures such as Donald Trump Jr. (10%), Ron DeSantis (8%), Nikki Haley (3%) and former Trump Vice-President Mike Pence (2%).
Will Trump seek another term as president?
In the same YouGov poll, 46% of respondents of all political allegiances stated their belief that Trump Sr. will indeed try to secure a third term as president.
The 22nd amendment in the U.S. constitution reads: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”. It has been suggested that Trump could try to sidestep the wording of this rule by instead seeking election to the office of the vice-president, then having his running mate pass the presidency back to him.
In October, Trump dismissed such a plan as “too cute”, telling reporters, per Reuters: “I think the people wouldn’t like that.”
However, the 79-year-old stopped short of ruling out an attempt to win another stint in the Oval Office by any other method. “I would love to do it,” he said when asked about the possibility of a third term.
And Trump has this week further stoked speculation about his intentions.
On Friday, the president took to his social-media platform, Truth Social, to share an apparently AI-generated image of himself holding a sign that reads: “Trump 2028, yes!” Alongside the image, he wrote the caption: “Trumplicans!”
When is the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
The next U.S. presidential election is due to take place on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Candidates typically confirm their intention to seek the presidency by spring of the year before the election, with party primaries held during the first half of election year.
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