By Grant Smith, Salma El Wardany, Fiona MacDonald and Ben Bartenstein

Nov 30, 2025(Bloomberg) –OPEC+ is gathering to assess global oil markets on Sunday, with the producers still on track to pause supply increases in the first quarter amid growing signs of a surplus.

The coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will probably stick with plans, agreed earlier this month, to make one more modest output increase in December and then hold steady for the first three months of next year, several delegates have said. They asked not to be identified as the talks are private.

With production set, the group has been focusing on other issues, including an upcoming review of the individual oil production capacities. Members approved a mechanism for the review, which is expected to help set output quotas in 2027, according to a statement from the group on Sunday. 

While the production hiatus indicates some caution by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners after they rapidly revived oil production earlier this year, it still leaves world markets on track for a significant excess in early 2026, which is likely to put further pressure on prices. 

Oil futures have declined 15% this year to trade near $63 a barrel in London, as booming supply from the Americas in particular exceeds demand growth. The International Energy Agency in Paris predicts a record glut in 2026, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see futures heading lower. 

Freezing production for three months also buys OPEC+ some time while it assesses heightened geopolitical risks to supplies from members, as well as renewed efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

President Donald Trump ratcheted up tensions with Venezuela on Saturday by warning that airlines should consider the airspace above and around the country to be closed, as his administration continues to crack down on drug trafficking. 

The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers in a bid to end President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. In a further sign of the turmoil posed by the conflict, Ukraine’s security service claimed strikes on two ocean-going tankers sanctioned for carrying Russian oil, which were hit by blasts off Turkey’s Black Sea coast. 

Stunned Traders

Eight key OPEC+ nations stunned oil traders in April when they began to accelerate the return of production halted since 2023. Some officials have described the move as Riyadh’s bid to reclaim market share ceded to rivals, and punish fellow OPEC+ members who had flouted their quotas.

OPEC+ has revived about 70% of two layers of production halted in 2023 — at least on paper — leaving about 1.1 million barrels a day of these still to return. However, actual increases have been smaller than the advertised volumes as some countries compensate for earlier overproduction, and others physically struggle to increase.

Such difficulties are at the heart of the group’s long-term review of members’ production capacity, first announced in May.

Some countries are seeking to have new capacity recognized and others struggle to pump as much as they’re allowed to. Clarifying their full capacity would help align quotas more closely with reality — and make any future cutbacks more credible.

Sunday’s online gathering began with a bi-annual meeting of the 12 core OPEC members at 1 p.m. London time, and also includes a meeting of the full 22-nation OPEC+ alliance, the group’s market monitoring committee, and a video conference for the eight countries engaged in monthly production adjustments.

The next ministerial meeting of the full OPEC+ group has been scheduled for June 7. 

© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.