As expected, the press conference did not provide clear guidance on further MPC decisions, but the Council remains open to further monetary policy easing. Our baseline scenario assumes that in the coming months, the MPC will focus on monitoring the Polish economy and inflation outlook after the recent downward interest rate adjustments. The first opportunity for further rate adjustments will be the publication of the March macroeconomic projection.
Nevertheless, current data remains crucial for MPC decisions. We expect CPI inflation to rise slightly in December 2025, with both headline and core inflation falling back again in 1Q 2026. However, if disinflationary trends outweigh the impact of the exceptionally low statistical base from December 2024 – and CPI and core inflation surprise to the downside this month, accompanied by further weakening in wage and employment growth – the likelihood of a January rate cut would increase.
Our inflation scenario assumes average inflation below 2.5% in 2026. Some inflation risks mentioned by the NBP Governor may not materialise. The staggered rollout of investment projects from the NRP, with distribution starting in early 2027, combined with a potential further decline in core inflation, could push CPI inflation below 2.5%. In addition, a high savings rate may continue to offset the inflationary effects of expansionary fiscal policy. For these reasons, we believe NBP rates could ultimately be reduced to 3.25% next year.