Wondering if MDA Space is still a smart way to play the space infrastructure theme, or if the market has already priced in the story, you are not alone.
The stock is down 2.0% over the last week, 15.8% over the last month and 19.0% year to date. However, zooming out, the 277.1% gain over three years shows how powerful the longer term rerating has been despite a 20.4% slide over the past year.
Recent headlines have focused on MDA Space expanding its role in satellite constellations and Earth observation platforms, alongside contract wins that reinforce its position in government and commercial space programs. That mix of long term project visibility and cyclical market sentiment goes a long way toward explaining the sharp swings you are seeing on the chart.
Right now, MDA Space scores a 3/6 valuation check, suggesting the shares look undervalued on some metrics but not all. Next, we will break down the main valuation methods investors are using today and then circle back to a more complete way of thinking about what the stock is really worth.
Find out why MDA Space’s -20.4% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
A Discounted Cash Flow model takes the cash MDA Space is expected to generate in the future and then discounts those projections back to today to estimate what the business is worth now. Simply Wall St uses a two stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting with analyst forecasts and then extrapolating further out.
MDA Space generated roughly CA$443.8 Million in free cash flow over the last twelve months, a strong base that underpins the valuation. Analyst estimates and extrapolations see free cash flow stepping down and then stabilising, with projections around CA$30.6 Million by 2035. Each of these future cash flows is discounted back to today using a required rate of return to account for risk and the time value of money.
On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about CA$6.21 per share. Compared with the current share price, that implies the stock is roughly 271.4% overvalued, which suggests a wide gap between market expectations and the cash flows currently forecast.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests MDA Space may be overvalued by 271.4%. Discover 908 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
MDA Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
For profitable companies like MDA Space, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings. In general, companies with stronger, more reliable growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE, while slower growing or riskier businesses typically trade on lower multiples.
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