Russia is deploying a medium-range ballistic missile ‘Oryeshnik’ in Belarus with an eye toward Europe.

This was reported to Ukrinform in a comment by the head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleh Ivashchenko.

“We are seeing preparations and deployment activities for the medium-range ballistic missile ‘Oryeshnik’ on Belarusian territory. Russia and Belarus are building military facilities for the launch installation, surveillance and communications systems, which are components of the ‘Oryeshnik’ system. However, as of now, these measures have not yet been realized.”

– Oleh Ivashchenko

Context and expected consequences

According to Ivashchenko, Russia could physically place a launch installation in Belarus. However, without completing the construction of the other elements, it would serve as a mock-up.

The head of the intelligence service noted that even if the ‘Oryeshnik’ is stationed in Belarus, Minsk would not have the authority to use it. The ‘Oryeshnik’ will remain in the single command-and-control system of Russia’s strategic missile forces.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, placing the ‘Oryeshnik’ on Belarusian territory is driven by a desire to intensify pressure on Europe and European countries, as well as to safeguard the system itself from being struck, since placing this weapon in the European part of the Russian Federation would make it a legitimate target for Ukraine’s Defense Forces.

The SZRU head previously told Ukrinform that as of May this year Belarus did not have nuclear weapons, and there were only delivery carriers.

On October 31, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, stated that in December the Russian missile system ‘Oryeshnik’ would be put on combat duty.

“Deploying the ‘Oryeshnik’ on Belarusian territory is a means of pressure primarily on the EU and NATO, not on Ukraine. Such a move will allow Russia to expand its capabilities to inflict a sudden strike on the capital of any European country and will significantly reduce the missiles’ flight time compared with launches from the Kapustin Yar test site.”

– Oleh Ivashchenko

According to Ivashchenko, deploying the ‘Oryeshnik’ in Belarus is viewed as a tool to pressure the European community: it could influence the decisions of the EU and NATO even without a direct strike on Ukraine.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, these steps indicate Russia’s readiness to deploy the most sensitive systems abroad, using Belarus as a platform to strengthen its influence on the regional security landscape.