And third, it cannot be assumed that, come 2029, Trump’s successor will return the US to a more traditional foreign policy path. I think some elements of Trumpism may continue whether Republicans or Democrats win the White House next time round – among them some of Trump’s tariffs, the pressure on Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defence, and the harder-edged pursuit of US national interests embodied in America First. Europe needs to recognise that the world has changed, probably permanently, and start to prepare for a world order that is based on power rather than rules. And the UK, currently dangerously exposed to global currents as a medium-sized economy floating uneasily mid-Atlantic, needs to get closer to the EU much faster and more comprehensively than the government’s modest reset allows.
