If you have been wondering whether Cheniere Energy at around $189 a share is a bargain or a trap, you are not alone. This piece is going to walk you through what the current price really implies.
The stock has pulled back recently, down about 7.9% over the last week, 12.0% over the past month and 14.2% year to date, even though the 3 year and 5 year returns of 23.8% and 239.8% still point to a strong long term story.
That volatility has unfolded against a backdrop of shifting expectations around US liquefied natural gas exports, evolving regulatory debates on new LNG projects and ongoing contract announcements that lock in long term volumes with overseas buyers. Together, these developments have nudged investors to reassess both the risk profile and the long term earnings power embedded in Cheniere’s current share price.
On our framework, Cheniere scores a 6/6 valuation check, suggesting it screens as undervalued across all our key metrics. Next we will break down what different valuation approaches say about fair value, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what the market might be missing.
Find out why Cheniere Energy’s -10.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
A Discounted Cash Flow model takes the cash Cheniere Energy is expected to generate in the future, then discounts those projections back to today to estimate what the business is worth now. It is essentially a way of turning long term cash flow forecasts into a present value per share.
Cheniere generated trailing twelve month free cash flow of about $2.8 billion. Based on analyst forecasts and Simply Wall St extrapolations, free cash flow is projected to rise to roughly $4.4 billion by 2029, with ten year projections continuing to edge higher through 2035 as additional liquefaction capacity ramps up and long term contracts support cash generation.
Feeding these cash flows into a two stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model yields an estimated intrinsic value of about $456.52 per share, compared with a recent market price near $189. This implies the stock is trading at roughly a 58.5% discount to its DCF based value, which indicates that investors may be heavily discounting the durability of Cheniere future cash flows.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Cheniere Energy is undervalued by 58.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
LNG Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Story Continues