Global Solar Additions to Fall for First Time in 2026, Says BNEF

15 comments

1. Non-paywalled article covering the same points: [https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Global-Solar-Power-Expansion-to-Dip-for-the-First-Time-Ever-in-2026.html](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Global-Solar-Power-Expansion-to-Dip-for-the-First-Time-Ever-in-2026.html)

2. Dont they always predict that?

3. Does anyone have that chart of historical predictions vs actuals for solar? Was looking for it the other day.

4. Bloomberg News is rife with paid for propaganda.

5. My house is paid off but I’m saving up for my next house. Still looking like 7 more years before I go solar on my retirement home. Hit the electric car though.

6. The amounts they’re talking about are staggering.

   688 GW in 2025, declining to 649 GW in 2026.

   Wow. In capacity terms, each of those years = 2015-2024 total coal power commissioned.

   Yeah capacity and output aren’t the same but this is still crazy that the expected “decline” still means an annual capacity rate equal to a whole decade of coal.

7. BNEF has a terrible track record of drastically underestimating solar growth.

   For example, in the less than three years from early 2022 to late 2024 they almost TRIPLED their estimate for solar installations in 2024. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/the-forecasters-gap

   So I’d take this estimate with a huge grain of salt. Much more likely that rapid growth will continue.

8. Don’t they say this every year?

9. I’ll believe pessimistic Solar numbers when I see them. Solar has far outpaced most estimates oner the years.

10. The thing that BNEF *still* don’t seem to be able to grasp about solar is that PV panels are mass-manufactured items. 

    This means that in the short-medium term, the amount of solar being installed is going to be driven by the manufacturing capacity. So unless there’s more factory closures than openings, the amount of solar installed will be at least equivalent to the previous year, with any change in demand being countered with price cuts. 

11. Is BNEF the one that’s funded by oil?

12. Compare the projected massive growth for solar in 2026 to fossil fuels which may or may not grow at all this year.

13. I don’t believe this….

14. Except the continued shift to electrification (EVs, data centers etc.) will drive demand and most likely keep pushing capacity up.

15. This is gonna age like sour milk.

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