EIA Sees 2.2 Million Barrel Per Day Glut in 2025

World petroleum and other liquid fuels production will outweigh consumption by 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025.

That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which projected that global petroleum and other liquid fuels production and consumption will average 106.18 million barrels per day and 103.94 million barrels per day, respectively, this year.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s December STEO showed that production averaged 103.62 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 105.17 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 107.85 million barrels per day in the third quarter. It forecasts that output will average 108.00 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Another quarterly breakdown in the EIA’s latest STEO highlighted that consumption came in at 102.30 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 103.96 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 104.78 million barrels per day in the third quarter. This STEO projected that demand will average 104.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Looking at 2026, the EIA’s December STEO projected that global petroleum and other liquid fuels production will outweigh demand by 2.26 million barrels per day. The STEO forecasted that production and demand will average 107.43 million barrels per day and 105.17 million barrels per day, respectively, next year.

In its December STEO, the EIA projected that production will average 106.50 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 107.25 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 107.87 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 108.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

This STEO forecasted that consumption will come in at 103.71 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 105.20 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 106.03 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 105.70 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

“Forecast global liquid fuels consumption increases by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026,” the EIA noted in its December STEO.

“Global liquid fuels consumption growth is driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries. Most non-OECD growth is concentrated in Asia,” it added.

“We forecast total liquid fuels consumption in China increases by 250,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by an additional 300,000 barrels per day in 2026. We raised our forecast of 2026 oil consumption in China by 50,000 barrels per day from last month’s STEO due to upward revisions to expected GDP growth,” it continued.

“We expect India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by 70,000 barrels per day this year and 170,000 barrels per day next year,” it went on to state.

The EIA noted in its December STEO that the Middle East “is also a significant source of non-OECD demand growth, increasing by 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 100,000 barrels per day in 2026”.

“We forecast total liquid fuels consumption in Africa increases by 240,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 150,000 barrels per day in 2026, led by strong growth in Sub-Saharan Africa,” it added.

The EIA went on to highlight in its latest STEO that global liquid fuels production in its forecast “increases by 3.0 million barrels per day in 2025 and by more than 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026”.

“Along with OPEC+, the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada drive production growth in the forecast,” the EIA noted.

“Together these four countries contribute more than 50 percent (1.5 million barrels per day) of total global growth this year and about 60 percent (0.8 million barrels per day) in 2026,” it added.

“Production in South America has been the leading source of growth in 2025 as new offshore vessels have started up ahead of schedule in Brazil and Guyana, with additional projects still in development,” it continued.

The EIA’s December STEO highlights that the world petroleum and other liquid fuels production figures include crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids.

“Differences in the reported historical production data across countries could result in some inconsistencies in the delineation between crude oil and other liquid fuels,” the EIA pointed out in the STEO.

In a note on the consumption figures, the EIA’s STEO stated that consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is the same as ‘petroleum product supplied’, defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly (DOE/EIA-0109).

“Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is ‘apparent consumption’, which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering,” the EIA highlighted in the STEO.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com