‘Money today or blood tomorrow’: The stark choice Europe faces over Russian assets

5 comments

1. Under the glare of strip lights in a vast Brussels conference room, Europe’s leaders are taking their seats around a long, polished table – phones silenced, aides ushered out, coffee cooling.

   They have gathered today and tomorrow for one of the most consequential summits since [Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine](https://inews.co.uk/topic/russia-ukraine-war?srsltid=AfmBOopamtRATMoWWoXuFdVrTpWwVEF2QImaGAncz7Us6TcIE2u–RVt&ico=in-line_link), facing a decision that could shape not only the course of the war but the European Union’s place in an increasingly hostile world.

   At issue is whether to unlock some €210bn (£185bn) in frozen Russian state assets to keep Ukraine financially alive. At stake is not just Kyiv’s ability to continue resisting Moscow’s assault, but the EU’s credibility as a geopolitical actor at a moment when [pressure from both Russia](https://inews.co.uk/opinion/putin-hurt-russia-stalin-getting-more-desperate-4085920?ico=in-line_link) and an [increasingly hostile United States](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-praises-trump-national-security-strategy-europe-horror-4092365?ico=in-line_link&app=true) is mounting.

   Ukraine is expected to run out of money by the spring without fresh funding. The European Commission has proposed a €90bn loan over the next two years, backed by Russian central bank reserves immobilised in the EU since 2022 – the vast majority of them held at the Brussels-based financial clearing house Euroclear.

   Britain also holds about [£25bn of frozen Russian assets](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-sanctions-freeze-25bn-of-russian-assets) in UK bank accounts and is [exploring how to use them to legally to help Ukraine](https://inews.co.uk/news/britain-unlock-russias-dirty-money-heres-how-used-4035021?srsltid=AfmBOoo38V_voKO1RAmd4G94WwC7202s9Mbp3MxZocO4ZGKLlET62_on&ico=in-line_link). However, this would have minimal impact without European allies taking action.

   For [Volodymyr Zelensky](https://inews.co.uk/topic/volodymyr-zelensky?srsltid=AfmBOoq2C8O9KA1Nr9fvjdV998se-CradSILpjKSZjFR4t0PHqx0qGVz&ico=in-line_link), who is attending the summit, the decision is existential. “The result Europe produces must make Russia feel that its desire to continue the war next year is pointless,” Ukraine’s President said before the meeting. “This rests entirely with Europe; Europe must make this choice.”

   The proposal has broad backing among EU states closest to Russia, including Germany, Poland and the Baltic and Nordic countries, which argue that using Russian money to support Ukraine is both morally justified and strategically necessary.

   But Belgium, where most of the Russian assets are held, remains firmly opposed. The Prime Minister, Bart De Wever, has warned that tapping the funds could expose his country to massive legal and financial retaliation from Moscow, while undermining confidence in Europe’s financial system – concerns echoed by the European Central Bank and Euroclear itself.

   “The reparations loan is sailing in uncharted waters,” De Wever said as he arrived at the summit, likening the frozen assets to a chicken laying golden eggs. “Today, the plan is to serve that chicken – to eat it.”

   Belgium has demanded sweeping legal and financial guarantees from the other 26 member states before it will lift its objections – guarantees that the Commission says are impossible to provide in unlimited form. While the loan could be approved by a qualified majority of EU countries, officials acknowledge that forcing it through over Belgium’s objections would risk a deep political rupture.

2. I’ve played enough games to know that giving your enemy resources means that they’ll just destroy you with them. They just have more capability to draw blood off you tomorrow.

3. Throw the kitchensink at Them

4. What are the guarantees that Belgium wants? What makes them “impossible to provide in unlimited form”?

   If the guarantees are military defense or sharing the legal liabilities from any claims from Russia, that being “impossible” really undercuts the idea of the EU being worth much beyond a currency and regulatory union.

   In practical terms, the loan could be collateralized by land that Russia currently occupies. Then as part of any peace settlement, the loan could be forgiven via the unfortunate, but likely land transfer from Ukraine to Russia. Or Russia could give back the land and get their money back.

   Is that legal in terms of international law? Probably not. But there is often a wide difference between doing what is right and what is technically legal.

5. So many spineless officials dithering while Ukraine fights Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.
   Give them all of the money now and stand up to aggression

Comments are closed.