Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has been drifting lower over the past month, even as its long term track record still looks solid. That pullback is what makes the stock interesting right now.
See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum.
That recent 1 month share price return of negative 15.8 percent looks like momentum is fading in the short term, but it comes after a strong year to date share price gain of 18.8 percent and an even stronger 1 year total shareholder return of 30.5 percent that still points to a solid long term story.
If this pullback has you rethinking your energy exposure, it might also be a good moment to see what is happening across other refiners and integrated players using aerospace and defense stocks
With earnings still growing, a solid long term track record and shares trading at a notable discount to analyst targets and intrinsic estimates, is this pullback a fresh buying opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future gains?
With Marathon Petroleum closing at $168.10 versus a narrative fair value near $201, the current slide is framed as a potential mispricing, not a thesis break.
Disciplined capital allocation through continued share buybacks, increasing MPLX distributions, and maintenance of an investment grade balance sheet are set to drive higher earnings per share and sustained shareholder returns, aligning with positive long term company trends.
Want to see how shrinking share count, rising margins and a richer profit multiple all stack up into that higher fair value claim? The full narrative spells out the specific revenue path, earnings step up and discount rate assumptions that have to hold for this price target to make sense.
Result: Fair Value of $201.33 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, if refining margins normalize faster than expected, or if policy-driven demand erosion accelerates, today’s apparent discount could prove far less compelling.
Find out about the key risks to this Marathon Petroleum narrative.
If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own inputs, build a personalized narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Marathon Petroleum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Before you move on, lock in a stronger watchlist by targeting fresh themes and overlooked opportunities that other investors may be ignoring right now.